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Violent Repression as a Commitment Problem: Urbanization, Food Shortages, and Civilian Killings under Authoritarian Regimes

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Listed:
  • Ore Koren

    (Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington and the Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth College)

  • Bumba Mukherjee

    (Department of Political Science, Penn State University)

Abstract

Authoritarian regimes frequently commit systematic killings of their own subjects, yet the mechanisms governing this behavioral shift remain unclear. We address this puzzle by developing a formal model that shows authoritarian elites perpetrate systematic killing campaigns preemptively in response to an exogenous shock where urban development levels are sufficiently high. In these contexts, the civilians cannot commit not to mobilize and pose a credible threat to the regime, which often preempts these efforts using systematic killings. Statistical analyses of a global high-resolution sample within all authoritarian states between 1996 and 2008 confirm the model’s predictions. This study thus explicates when elites would resort to systematic killing as a rationalist strategy, and identifies an important dynamic that explains geographical and temporal variations in systematic killings within authoritarian states.

Suggested Citation

  • Ore Koren & Bumba Mukherjee, 2019. "Violent Repression as a Commitment Problem: Urbanization, Food Shortages, and Civilian Killings under Authoritarian Regimes," HiCN Working Papers 296, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:296
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Henryk Pierskalla, 2010. "Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation: The Strategic Calculus of Government Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 117-145, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mass killing; development; drought; geospatial analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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