IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/296.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Violent Repression as a Commitment Problem: Urbanization, Food Shortages, and Civilian Killings under Authoritarian Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Ore Koren

    (Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington and the Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth College)

  • Bumba Mukherjee

    (Department of Political Science, Penn State University)

Abstract

Authoritarian regimes frequently commit systematic killings of their own subjects, yet the mechanisms governing this behavioral shift remain unclear. We address this puzzle by developing a formal model that shows authoritarian elites perpetrate systematic killing campaigns preemptively in response to an exogenous shock where urban development levels are sufficiently high. In these contexts, the civilians cannot commit not to mobilize and pose a credible threat to the regime, which often preempts these efforts using systematic killings. Statistical analyses of a global high-resolution sample within all authoritarian states between 1996 and 2008 confirm the model’s predictions. This study thus explicates when elites would resort to systematic killing as a rationalist strategy, and identifies an important dynamic that explains geographical and temporal variations in systematic killings within authoritarian states.

Suggested Citation

  • Ore Koren & Bumba Mukherjee, 2019. "Violent Repression as a Commitment Problem: Urbanization, Food Shortages, and Civilian Killings under Authoritarian Regimes," HiCN Working Papers 296, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/HiCN-WP-296.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Henryk Pierskalla, 2010. "Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation: The Strategic Calculus of Government Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 117-145, February.
    2. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    3. King, Gary & Roberts, Margaret E., 2015. "How Robust Standard Errors Expose Methodological Problems They Do Not Fix, and What to Do About It," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 159-179, April.
    4. Gregory, Paul R. & Schröder, Philipp J.H. & Sonin, Konstantin, 2011. "Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin's archives," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 34-42, March.
    5. Cullen S Hendrix & Stephan Haggard, 2015. "Global food prices, regime type, and urban unrest in the developing world," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 52(2), pages 143-157, March.
    6. Marc F. Bellemare, 2015. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 1-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P. Dorian Owen, 2017. "Evaluating Ingenious Instruments for Fundamental Determinants of Long-Run Economic Growth and Development," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-33, September.
    2. von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Hossain, Naomi & Brown, Tracy & Prasai, Nilam & Yohannes, Yisehac & Patterson, Fraser & Sonntag, Andrea & Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria & Towey, Olive & Foley, Connell, 2017. "2017 Global Hunger Index: The inequalities of hunger," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-271-0.
      • von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Hossain, Naomi & Brown, Tracy & Prasai, Nilam & Yohannes, Yisehac & Patterson, Fraser & Sonntag, Andrea & Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria & Towey, Olive & Foley, Connell, 2017. "2017 Global Hunger Index: The inequalities of hunger," IFPRI synopses 9780896292765, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
      • von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Hossain, Naomi & Brown, Tracy & Prasai, Nilam & Yohannes, Yisehac & Patterson, Fraser & Sonntag, Andrea & Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria & Towey, Olive & Foley, Connell, 2017. "2017 Global Hunger Index: The inequalities of hunger," IFPRI synopses 9780896292932, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
      • von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Hossain, Naomi & Brown, Tracy & Prasai, Nilam & Yohannes, Yisehac & Patterson, Fraser & Sonntag, Andrea & Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria & Towey, Olive & Foley, Connell, 2017. "2017 Global Hunger Index: The inequalities of hunger," IFPRI synopses 9780896292758, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
      • von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Hossain, Naomi & Brown, Tracy & Prasai, Nilam & Yohannes, Yisehac & Patterson, Fraser & Sonntag, Andrea & Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria & Towey, Olive & Foley, Connell, 2017. "2017 Global Hunger Index: The inequalities of hunger," IFPRI synopses 9780896292772, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    4. Smith, Sarah C. & Ubilava, David, 2017. "The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Economic Growth in the Developing World," Working Papers 2017-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised May 2017.
    5. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2021. "The Impact of Food Prices on Conflict Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 547-560, March.
    6. Nikolova, Milena & Popova, Olga & Otrachshenko, Vladimir, 2022. "Stalin and the origins of mistrust," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    8. Aleksey Oshchepkov & Anna Shirokanova, 2020. "Multilevel Modeling For Economists: Why, When And How," HSE Working papers WP BRP 233/EC/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Naomi Hossain, 2018. "How the international media framed ‘food riots’ during the global food crises of 2007–12," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(3), pages 677-688, June.
    10. Adesoji Adelaja & Justin George & Takashi Miyahara & Eva Penar, 2019. "Food Insecurity and Terrorism," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 475-497.
    11. Ore Koren, 2017. "Hunger Games: Food Security and Strategic Preemptive Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 253, Households in Conflict Network.
    12. Babak Rezaeedaryakenari & Steven T. Landis & Cameron G. Thies, 2020. "Food price volatilities and civilian victimization in Africa," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 193-214, March.
    13. Ore Koren & Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2016. "From global to local, food insecurity is associated with contemporary armed conflicts," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(5), pages 999-1010, October.
    14. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    15. Middleton Joel A. & Aronow Peter M., 2015. "Unbiased Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect in Cluster-Randomized Experiments," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1-2), pages 39-75, December.
    16. Ore Koren & Jessica Steinberg & Amit Hagar, 2024. "Meat production and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Asia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 68(3), pages 567-586, July.
    17. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," PSE Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    18. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    19. Guido de Blasio & Daniela Vuri, 2019. "Effects of the Joint Custody Law in Italy," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 479-514, September.
    20. Alston Lee J. & Mueller Bernardo, 2018. "Priests, Conflicts and Property Rights: the Impacts on Tenancy and Land Use in Brazil," Man and the Economy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mass killing; development; drought; geospatial analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tilman Brück or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hicn.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.