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A Quantitative Analysis of Swedish Fertility Dynamics: 1751-1990

Author

Listed:
  • Zvi Eckstein

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • Pedro Mira

    (CEMFI)

  • Kenneth I. Wolpin

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between age-specific fertility, mortality and real wages in Sweden during the demographic transition. We fit a model of life cycle fertility to two and a half centuries of Swedish time-series data. The model fits the data well, accurately portraying the total fertility declines from more that four children per female before the mid-19th century to about two children today. About 80% of this decline was in fertility at female ages over 30. The fitted model implies that reductions in child mortality is the most important factor explaining the fertility decline. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Zvi Eckstein & Pedro Mira & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1999. "A Quantitative Analysis of Swedish Fertility Dynamics: 1751-1990," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 137-165, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:2:y:1999:i:1:p:137-165
    DOI: 10.1006/redy.1998.0041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eckstein, Zvi & Stern, Steven & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1988. "Fertility Choice, Land, and the Malthusian Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 353-361, May.
    2. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eckstein, Zvi & Schultz, T. Paul & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1984. "Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-317, December.
    4. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    5. Fogel, Robert W, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 369-395, June.
    6. Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. "Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March.
    7. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
    8. Lee, Ronald D & Lapkoff, Shelley, 1988. "Intergenerational Flows of Time and Goods: Consequences of Slowing Population Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 618-651, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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