IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/rbnkwp/0116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Qualitative Survey Responses and Production over the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Lindström, Tomas

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that traditional autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models based on business survey data can provide more accurate one-quarter-ahead forecasts of output growth than naive alternatives. Another finding is that when BTS variables concerning ex post (ex ante) output growth are included in the empirical specifications, then no other ex post (ex ante) business survey variables seems to include any additional information about output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindström, Tomas, 2000. "Qualitative Survey Responses and Production over the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 116, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/4671/wp_116.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
    2. Bechtel, Gordon G., 1981. "Measuring subjective social indicators," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-181, September.
    3. Hanssens, Dominique M & Vanden Abeele, Pierre M, 1987. "A Time-Series Study of the Formation and Predictive Performance of EEC Production Survey Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 507-519, October.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jonung, Lars, 1986. "Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 315-325, September.
    6. Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 1998. "A Hidden Markov Model as a Dynamic Bayesian Classifier, With an Application to Forecasting Business-Cycle Turning Points," Working Papers 59, National Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-1279, September.
    8. repec:bla:econom:v:42:y:1975:i:166:p:123-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. F. Modigliani & H. M. Weingartner, 1958. "Forecasting Uses of Anticipatory Data on Investment and Sales," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(1), pages 23-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Papers 84, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2004. "On The Predictive Content Of Production Surveys: A Pan-European Study," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-017-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2004. "On The Predictive Content Of Production Surveys: A Pan-European Study," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-017-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
    3. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Hugo Oliveros C., 1999. "Expectativas:Una Aproximación A Través De Modelos De Escogencia Discreta," Borradores de Economia 2697, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
    6. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
    7. Hugo Oliveros, 1999. "Expectativas: Una Aproximación a Través de Modelos de Escogencia Discreta," Borradores de Economia 137, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Lemmens, Aurelie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2005. "On the predictive content of production surveys: A pan-European study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 363-375.
    9. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "On the Predictive Content of Production Surveys : a Pan-European Study," Other publications TiSEM adab9f0e-7dfd-4dc4-bd92-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Sergey Tsukhlo, 2010. "Methodological Basis for Organization and Analytical Capacity of Business Surveys in Russian Industry," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 145P.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Domenico Piccolo & Rosaria Simone, 2019. "The class of cub models: statistical foundations, inferential issues and empirical evidence," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 389-435, September.
    13. Tomasz Lyziak, 2010. "Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 155-201, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
    15. Tomas Philipson & John Cawley, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of Information Barriers to Trade in Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 827-846, September.
    16. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    17. Erika Urbankova & David Krizek, 2020. "Homogeneity of Determinants in the Financial Sector and Investment in EU Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Bujosa-Brun, Marcos, 2000. "Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-227.
    19. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    20. Das, J.W.M. & Dominitz, J. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1997. "Comparing Predictions and Outcomes : Theory and Application to Income Changes," Discussion Paper 1997-45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    21. Wärneryd, K.E., 1995. "Demystifying rational expectations theory through an economic-psychological model," Discussion Paper 1995-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Economic indicators; Manufacturing; Survey data; Time-series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lena Löfgren (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbgovse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.