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A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jacobson, Tor

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Jansson, Per

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Vredin, Anders

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Warne, Anders

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

The interest in empirical studies of monetary policy has increased in the last decade. The deregulation of financial markets and the increased use of explicit policy rules and targets have made monetary policy more transparent and interesting for economic analysis. This paper demonstrates how a VAR model with long run restrictions justified by economic theory can be usefully applied in analyses of issues central to monetary policy: the effects of innovations in interest rates and other shocks; the short and long run relationships between prices and nominal and real exchange rates; the properties of an index of monetary conditions; dynamic forecasts of inflation; and the relation between inflation and the output gap

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1999. "A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 77, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0077
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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/991/WP_77.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tor Jacobson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 1998. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 69-96, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
    3. Héctor Bravo L. & Carlos García T., 2002. "Measuring Monetary Policy and Pass-Through in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 5-28, December.
    4. Tae-Seok Jang & Eiji Okano, 2015. "Productivity Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Two-Country Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 10(1), pages 7-37, March.
    5. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
    6. Mukesh Khanal, 2011. "Monetary Neutrality in the Nepalese Economy during 1975-2008," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 71-91, April.
    7. Grand Nathalie & Dropsy Vincent, 2005. "Exchange Rate And Inflation Targeting In Morocco And Tunisia," Macroeconomics 0507018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2000. "The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 199-231, June.
    10. Mukesh Khanal, 2011. "Monetary Neutrality in the Nepalese Economy during 1975-2008," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 71-91, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Common stochastic trends; Monetary policy; Vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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