IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/hastef/0007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Earnings Mobility and Distribution: Comparing Statistical Models on Swedish Data

Author

Listed:
  • Palme, Mårten

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

There are at least two instrumental motives for studying earnings mobility. First, to extend the analysis of income distribution to more than one time period. Second, to predict future individual earnings. For both these motives, adequate models of earnings mobility are needed. This study compares the usefulness of different statistical models (human capital and stochastic models), previously used to estimate earnings mobility, in predicting future individual earnings and earnings distributions. Special attention is given to the effect of considering individual heterogeneity. A 20- year panel, collected from the Swedish Level of Living Survey, of 651 employed men is used. The models are estimated on 17 periods and predictions are made for 3. It is found that a dynamic human capital model gives the best predictions of individual earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Palme, Mårten, 1994. "Earnings Mobility and Distribution: Comparing Statistical Models on Swedish Data," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 7, Stockholm School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lillard, Lee A & Willis, Robert J, 1978. "Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 985-1012, September.
    2. Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1990. "Empirical Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 202-229, April.
    3. Lillard, Lee A & Weiss, Yoram, 1979. "Components of Variation in Panel Earnings Data: American Scientists, 1960-70," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 437-454, March.
    4. Creedy, John, 1977. "The Distribution of Lifetime Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 412-429, November.
    5. Lillard, Lee A, 1977. "Inequality: Earnings vs. Human Wealth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 42-53, March.
    6. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
    7. Creedy, John, 1982. "The British State Pension: Contributions, Benefits and Indexation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(2), pages 97-112, May.
    8. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:525-602 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Shorrocks, Anthony, 1978. "Income inequality and income mobility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 376-393, December.
    10. Hause, John C, 1980. "The Fine Structure of Earnings and the On-the-Job Training Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1013-1029, May.
    11. Creedy, John, 1980. "The New Government Pension Scheme: A Simulation Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 42(1), pages 51-64, February.
    12. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
    13. Creedy, J & Hart, P E, 1979. "Age and the Distribution of Earnings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(354), pages 280-293, June.
    14. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    15. Sahota, Gian Singh, 1978. "Theories of Personal Income Distribution: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-55, March.
    16. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2014. "Does the labor-income process contain a unit root? Evidence from individual-specific time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 152-167.
    2. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Rosen, Harvey S & Weathers, Robert, 2000. "Horatio Alger Meets the Mobility Tables," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 243-274, June.
    3. Esfandiar Maasoumi & Almas Heshmati, 2000. "Stochastic dominance amongst swedish income distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 287-320.
    4. Gustavsson, Magnus, 2002. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality during Macroeconomic Turbulence: Sweden 1991-1999," Working Paper Series 2002:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sologon, Denisa Maria & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2009. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality among Men across 14 EU Countries, 1994-2001: Evidence from ECHP," IZA Discussion Papers 4012, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    3. Denisa Maria Sologon & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2009. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality in EU, 1994-2001," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 184, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    4. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2011. "Has the Instability of Personal Incomes been Increasing?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 218, pages 33-43, October.
    5. Joseph G. Altonji & Anthony A. Smith Jr. & Ivan Vidangos, 2013. "Modeling Earnings Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1395-1454, July.
    6. Stephanie Aaronson, 2002. "The rise in lifetime earnings inequality among men," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Huggett, Mark & Ventura, Gustavo & Yaron, Amir, 2006. "Human capital and earnings distribution dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 265-290, March.
    8. Koray Aktas, 2021. "Characterizing Life-Cycle Dynamics of Annual Days of Work, Wages, and Cross-Covariances," Working Papers 465, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    9. Florian Zainhofer, 2007. "Life Cycle Portfolio Choice: A Swiss Perspective," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 187-238, June.
    10. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2013. "Earnings and Labour Market Volatility in Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 7491, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari, 2019. "Correlation of Brothers' Earnings and Intergenerational Transmission," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 370-383, May.
    12. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:525-602 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ivan Vidangos, 2009. "Household welfare, precautionary saving, and social insurance under multiple sources of risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Robert Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2008. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings in the U.S., 1970-2004," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 697, Boston College Department of Economics.
    16. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    17. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    18. Toda, Alexis Akira, 2012. "The double power law in income distribution: Explanations and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 364-381.
    19. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Niels Westergård‐Nielsen, 2013. "Unemployment Insurance, Wage Dynamics and Inequality Over the Life Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 341-372, May.
    20. Giorgio Calzolari & Laura Magazzini, 2012. "Autocorrelation and masked heterogeneity in panel data models estimated by maximum likelihood," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 145-152, August.
    21. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2024. "Recent development of covariance structure analysis in economics," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 31-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life cycle earnings; lifetime earnings distribution; random coefficient models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helena Lundin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erhhsse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.