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Droughts in Syria: An Assessment of Impacts and Options for Improving the Resilience of the Poor

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  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Verner, Dorte
  • Zhu, Tingju

Abstract

Droughts in Syria have occurred during almost every second year over the past half century, and may become even more frequent in the future. This paper assesses the economic and social implications of droughts using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Syria. Results show that growth in economic output (GDP)during drought years can be close to one percentage point lower compared to nondrought years. Food security and the poor are hard hit by droughts, mainly through the loss of capital, incomes and higher food/feed prices. Poverty levels increase by about 0.3 to 1.2 percentage points during an average drought and stay above “non-drought levels” even when the drought is over. Poor farm households are hardest hit, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households. Actions for improving the resilience of the poor should focus on agriculture, non-farm employment opportunities and social safety nets.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Breisinger, Clemens & Verner, Dorte & Zhu, Tingju, 2012. "Droughts in Syria: An Assessment of Impacts and Options for Improving the Resilience of the Poor," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(1), pages 1-29, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:qjiage:155471
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.155471
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    1. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk, 2010. "Droughts and floods in Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 962, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Breisinger, Clemens & van Rheenen, Teunis & Ringler, Claudia & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Minot, Nicholas & Aragon, Catherine & Yu, Bingxin & Ecker, Olivier & Zhu, Tingju, 2010. "Food security and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 985, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth L. Roos & Heinrich R. Bohlmann & Jan H. van Heerden & Nicholas Kilimani, 2016. "Counting the cost of drought induced productivity losses in an agro-based economy: The case of Uganda," Working Papers 616, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Jean-Marc Montaud, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working papers of CATT hal-02141050, HAL.
    3. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    4. Jean-Marc MONTAUD, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2018-2019_5, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Feb 2019.
    5. Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Breisinger, Clemens & Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam & Ringler, Claudia & Wiebelt, Manfred & Zhu, Tingju, 2017. "Linking the economics of water, energy, and food: A nexus modeling approach," MENA working papers 4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Jean-Marc Montaud, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-02141050, HAL.
    7. Ghazal Shahpari & Hossein Sadeghi & Malihe Ashena & David García-León, 2022. "Drought effects on the Iranian economy: a computable general equilibrium approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 4110-4127, March.
    8. Simin Mehdipour & Nouzar Nakhaee & Farzaneh Zolala & Maryam Okhovati & Afsar Foroud & Ali Akbar Haghdoost, 2022. "A systematized review exploring the map of publications on the health impacts of drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 35-62, August.

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