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Évolution de l’usage des modes de transport - Analyse des facteurs explicatifs : application à l’agglomération lyonnaise

Author

Listed:
  • Mirkan Geyik

    (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Bonnel

    (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Après une progression continue de l'usage de la voiture dans la plupart des conurbations de l'OCDE, on assiste dans beaucoup de pays à une inversion de tendance avec une plus ou moins grande réduction de la place de la voiture selon les indicateurs retenus pour la mesurer et selon les conurbations. De nombreux facteurs sont susceptibles d'expliquer cette tendance (vieillissement, augmentation du prix du pétrole, préoccupation environnementale, congestion, politique de déplacements plus contraignante pour la voiture développement des transports collectifs…). Mais ces facteurs sont fortement corrélés entre eux. L'objectif du projet est d'identifier les principaux facteurs explicatifs de ces évolutions, puis de quantifier leur importance. Cette analyse permettra d'approfondir la connaissance des 9 déterminants de l'usage de la voiture et de son évolution. Elle permettra aussi d'identifier quelle est la part des évolutions observées qui est due aux facteurs habituellement pris en compte dans la modélisation à travers la localisation, la motorisation, l'offre de transport et les principaux déterminants sociodémographiques. Implicitement, cela permettra aussi en creux de s'interroger sur la part des évolutions modales non expliquée par les déterminants usuels et qui est donc liée à d'autres dimensions non ou mal prises en compte dans la modélisation usuelle des choix modaux. Le projet de recherche apporte ainsi des éléments de réflexion face aux enjeux multiples qui découlent de la mobilité urbaine qu'ils soient économiques, environnementaux ou sociaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirkan Geyik & Patrick Bonnel, 2016. "Évolution de l’usage des modes de transport - Analyse des facteurs explicatifs : application à l’agglomération lyonnaise," Working Papers halshs-01685748, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01685748
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01685748
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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