IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-00829667.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty about long term climate targets: A real option approach to investment appraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Audrey Laude

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article analyses how investors cope with carbon price uncertainty on the long run. More precisely, we assume that climate targets are not well established, so decision makers do not know if climate policy will be highly or moderately restrictive. It means that the long run carbon price drift is uncertain. However, there is a progressive resolution of this uncertainty. A real option analysis is conducted, in the case of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project appraisal. We show that this additional uncertainty decreases investment probability, but does not lead to a lag of investment, as generally assumed in real option literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Audrey Laude, 2011. "Uncertainty about long term climate targets: A real option approach to investment appraisal," Working Papers halshs-00829667, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829667
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00829667
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00829667/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    3. Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W. H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2010. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 903-934, December.
    4. Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek & Kettunen, Janne & Wilson, Tom, 2009. "Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5192-5207, December.
    5. Audrey Laude & O. Ricci & G. Bureau & J. Royer-Adnot & A. Fabbri, 2011. "CO2 capture and storage from a bioethanol plant: Carbon and energy footprint and economic assessment," Post-Print hal-02163830, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Audrey LAUDE, 2011. "Uncertainty about long term climate targets: A real option approach to investment appraisal," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1711, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    2. Laude, Audrey & Jonen, Christian, 2013. "Biomass and CCS: The influence of technical change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 916-924.
    3. Audrey Laude & Christian Jonen, 2011. "Biomass and CCS: The influence of the learning effect," Working Papers halshs-00829779, HAL.
    4. Christian JONEN & Audrey LAUDE, 2011. "Biomasse and CCS: The Influence of the Learning Effect," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 273, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    6. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    7. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland & Palan, Stefan, 2013. "Inducing low-carbon investment in the electric power industry through a price floor for emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 190-204.
    8. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    9. Noshchenko, Olga & Hagspiel, Verena, 2024. "Environmental and economic multi-objective real options analysis: Electrification choices for field development investment planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    10. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    11. repec:grz:wpsses:2011-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    13. Zhang, Mingming & Liu, Liyun & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Nemet, Gregory F., 2010. "Robust incentives and the design of a climate change governance regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7216-7225, November.
    15. Zhang, Mingming & Tang, Yamei & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Optimal investment portfolio strategies for power enterprises under multi-policy scenarios of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. George A. Gonzalez, 2016. "Transforming Energy: Solving Climate Change with Technology Policy . New York : Cambridge University Press . 360 pages. ISBN 9781107614970, $29.99 paperback. Anthony Patt , 2015 ," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 33(1), pages 111-113, January.
    17. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Zhu, Lijing & Li, Yan, 2018. "Investment strategy for underground gas storage facilities based on real option model considering gas market reform in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 132-142.
    18. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    19. Kang, Sang Baum & Létourneau, Pascal, 2016. "Investors’ reaction to the government credibility problem: A real option analysis of emission permit policy risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 96-107.
    20. ShahNazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "The effect of political cycles on power investment decisions: Expectations over the repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy mechanisms in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 157-165.
    21. Hieronymi, Philipp & Schüller, David, 2015. "The Clean-Development Mechanism, stochastic permit prices and energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 25-36.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.