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Evaluer un dispositif sectoriel d'aide à l'emploi : L'exemple des hôtels cafés restaurants de 2004 à 2009

Author

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  • Mathieu Bunel

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

En août 2004 a été mis en place une aide à l'emploi spécifique aux entreprises du secteur Hôtel-Cafés-Restaurants (HCR). Ce dispositif relativement complexe couvrant la période 2004 à 2009 repose sur une exonération forfaitaire variable selon le secteur d'activité, le niveau des salaires et l'ancienneté des entreprises. Afin d'étudier l'impact spécifique de ce dispositif sur les taux de création et de destruction d'emplois, on mobilise les données administratives issues des fichiers Unedic et Acoss permettant de retracer l'ensemble des exonérations effectivement perçues par les entreprises de ces secteurs ainsi que les données issues des Dads pour mesurer l'évolution infra-annuelle de l'emploi. On compare à l'aide d'un panel sur données semi-agrégées, la situation des entreprises des sous-secteurs HCR éligibles aux aides à celle des entreprises témoins ayant une structure des salaires et d'activité comparable. Il s'agit d'entreprises issues des services à la personne hors aide à domicile, activités sportives et culturelles et du commerce de détail alimentaire ou nonalimentaire hors grandes surfaces, vente à domicile, activité médicale, électronique et informatique. Pour tenir compte de la censure des données et de l'influence des variables inobservables un modèle Tobit avec effet aléatoire. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la hausse du Taux d'exonération apparent générée par les aides HCR a eu un impact significatif mais très limité en termes de création et de sauvegarde de l'emploi. L'effet estimé est de l'ordre de 7 500 emplois par an soit un coût par emploi créé très élevé, de plus de 80 000 €. Les résultats obtenus indiquent également que le ciblage de cette aide aurait pu être plus efficace en concentrant les aides sur les sous-secteurs les plus sensibles au coût du travail.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Bunel, 2012. "Evaluer un dispositif sectoriel d'aide à l'emploi : L'exemple des hôtels cafés restaurants de 2004 à 2009," Working Papers halshs-00736693, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00736693
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00736693
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hôtels-cafés-restaurants; exonérations de cotisations sociales; aide sectorielle à l'emploi; modèle Tobit avec effet aléatoire sur données de panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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