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La dynamique de la croissance économique et de l'ouverture dans les pays en voie de développement : quelques investigations empiriques à partir des données de Panel

Author

Listed:
  • Saïd Hanchane

    (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Abdouni Abdeljabbar

    (CEDERS - Centre de Recherche sur les Dynamiques, les Politiques Economiques et l'Economie des Ressources - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2)

Abstract

Pour rembourser la dette et amorcer une croissance et un développement durable, plusieurs pays en voie de développement ont adopté, sous l'égide des organisations internationales comme le FMI et la Banque Mondiale, une politique d'ouverture à partir du début des années quatre-vingt dans le cadre des programmes d'ajustement structurel, des accords du GATT (et de l'OMC récemment) et des accords régionaux. La principale question que l'on se pose dans ce travail est de savoir quel est l'impact de cette politique d'ouverture sur la croissance des ces pays ? Les travaux théoriques qui ont étudié cette question proposent des modèles fondés sur l'apprentissage par la pratique. Ils montrent que l'ouverture commerciale dans ces pays a un impact négatif sur leur croissance économique et préconisent une politique protectionniste, au moins temporairement, pour protéger l'industrie dans l'enfance. En revanche, les modèles qui ont traité cette question pour les pays développés sont fondés sur l'innovation à la Romer (1990). Ils montrent un impact positif de l'ouverture sur la croissance. Quant aux travaux empiriques, ils montrent un effet positif de l'ouverture sur la croissance des pays. Cependant, ces travaux se heurtent à plusieurs limites liés essentiellement aux méthodes économétriques utilisées et aux choix des indicateurs qui représentent l'ouverture. L'objectif de ce travail est de tester empiriquement l'impact de cette politique d'ouverture sur la croissance économique des pays en voie de développement tout en cherchant à surmonter ses limites. Après une première section dans laquelle nous présentons une revue de la littérature sur la relation ouverture - croissance, nous proposons, dans la deuxième section, des tests empiriques sur un Panel de 47 pays en voie de développement entre 1980 et 1997. Nous spécifions pour cela un modèle dynamique, qui n'a jamais été étudié dans la littérature, que nous estimons par différentes méthodes, notamment par la Méthode des Moments Généralisées. Par ailleurs, nous nous démarquons de la littérature précédente sur ce sujet dans le choix des indicateurs retenus traditionnellement pour mesurer l'ouverture.

Suggested Citation

  • Saïd Hanchane & Abdouni Abdeljabbar, 2004. "La dynamique de la croissance économique et de l'ouverture dans les pays en voie de développement : quelques investigations empiriques à partir des données de Panel," Working Papers halshs-00083720, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00083720
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00083720
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    References listed on IDEAS

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