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L’impact de l’indépendance sur le développement des petites économies insulaires et côtières : une approche par la méthode des doubles différences

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Saïdi

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alexandra Schaffar
  • Francisco Serranito

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cette étude examine l'impact de l'indépendance politique sur le développement économique des petites îles et territoires côtiers en utilisant la méthode des différences en différences avec traitement hétérogène. Contrairement au consensus dominant qui associe l'indépendance à des performances économiques inférieures, nos résultats révèlent une dynamique plus complexe. Si l'accession à l'indépendance provoque une contraction initiale du PIB par habitant (–5% l'année de l'indépendance, –8% l'année suivante), cet effet négatif se dissipe après trois ans. L'analyse par cohorte met en évidence une forte hétérogénéité des trajectoires post-indépendance, certains territoires connaissant un essor remarquable (Singapour, Seychelles) tandis que d'autres enregistrent un déclin significatif. Ces résultats suggèrent que l'impact de l'indépendance dépend fondamentalement de facteurs idiosyncratiques qui déterminent la capacité d'un territoire à transformer son autonomie politique en opportunité de développement.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Saïdi & Alexandra Schaffar & Francisco Serranito, 2025. "L’impact de l’indépendance sur le développement des petites économies insulaires et côtières : une approche par la méthode des doubles différences," Working Papers hal-04947436, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04947436
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Développement économique; Différences de différences; Indépendance; Petites économies insulaires; Traitement hétérogène;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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