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Poverty and COVID-19 in Developing Countries

Author

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  • Olivier Bargain

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

  • Ulugbek Aminjonov

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

In March 2020, shelter-in-place and social-distancing policies have been enforced or recommended all over the world to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. However, strict containment is hardly achievable in low-income countries, as large parts of population are forced to continue income-generating activities to escape extreme poverty or hunger. To assess the trade-off between poverty and a higher risk of catching COVID-19, we use regional mobility to work and poverty rates across 241 regions of 9 countries from Latin America and Africa. With a difference-in-difference approach around the time of lockdown announcements, we mea-sure the differential time variation in work mobility between high and low-poverty regions. We find that the degree of work mobility reduction is significantly driven by the intensity of poverty. Consistently, human movements vary significantly more between poverty levels when it come to work rather than less vital activities. We also estimate how higher poverty rates translate into a faster spread of COVID-19 cases through the channel of work mobility.
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Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Bargain & Ulugbek Aminjonov, 2020. "Poverty and COVID-19 in Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-03258229, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03258229
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03258229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
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    4. Linden McBride & Austin Nichols, 2018. "Retooling Poverty Targeting Using Out-of-Sample Validation and Machine Learning," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 531-550.
    5. Kathleen Beegle & Aline Coudouel & Emma Monsalve, 2018. "Realizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa [Les filets sociaux en Afrique comment realiser pleinement leur potential?]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29789.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Vicente Javier Clemente-Suárez & Stephanie Rodriguez-Besteiro & Juan José Cabello-Eras & Alvaro Bustamante-Sanchez & Eduardo Navarro-Jiménez & Macarena Donoso-Gonzalez & Ana Isabel Beltrán-Velasco & J, 2022. "Sustainable Development Goals in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Narrative Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Angelo Cozzubo & Javier Herrera & Mireille Razafindrakoto & François Roubaud, 2021. "El impacto de políticas diferenciadas de cuarentena sobre la mortalidad por COVID-19: el caso de Brasil y Perú," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2021-501, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    4. Sławomir Kalinowski & Aleksandra Łuczak, 2022. "Dychotomia odczuć bezpieczeństwa w wymiarze społecznym mieszkańców miast w czasie pandemii COVID-19," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 74-87.
    5. Pajaron, Marjorie C. & Vasquez, Glacer Niño A., 2021. "How effective is community quarantine in the Philippines? A quasi-experimental analysis," GLO Discussion Paper Series 782, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Berniell, Inés & Facchini, Gabriel, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdown and domestic violence: Evidence from internet-search behavior in 11 countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    8. Amare, Mulubrhan & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tiberti, Luca & Chamberlin, Jordan, 2021. "COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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