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Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Poverty and COVID-19 in Developing Countries

Author

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  • Bargain, Olivier B.

    (Université de Bordeaux)

  • Aminjonov, Ulugbek

    (University of Bordeaux)

Abstract

In March 2020, shelter-in-place and social-distancing policies have been enforced or recommended all over the world to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. However, strict containment is hardly achievable in low-income countries, as large parts of population are forced to continue income-generating activities to escape extreme poverty or hunger. To assess the trade-off between poverty and a higher risk of catching COVID-19, we use regional mobility to work and poverty rates across 241 regions of 9 countries from Latin America and Africa. With a difference-in-difference approach around the time of lockdown announcements, we measure the differential time variation in work mobility between high and low-poverty regions. We find that the degree of work mobility reduction is significantly driven by the intensity of poverty. Consistently, human movements vary significantly more between poverty levels when it come to work rather than less vital activities. We also estimate how higher poverty rates translate into a faster spread of COVID-19 cases through the channel of work mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Bargain, Olivier B. & Aminjonov, Ulugbek, 2020. "Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Poverty and COVID-19 in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 13297, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    2. Robalino, David A., 2020. "The COVID-19 Conundrum in the Developing World: Protecting Lives or Protecting Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 13136, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ugo Gentilini & Mohamed Almenfi & Ian Orton & Pamela Dale, 2020. "Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33635, The World Bank Group.
    4. Linden McBride & Austin Nichols, 2018. "Retooling Poverty Targeting Using Out-of-Sample Validation and Machine Learning," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 531-550.
    5. Kathleen Beegle & Aline Coudouel & Emma Monsalve, 2018. "Realizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa [Les filets sociaux en Afrique comment realiser pleinement leur potential?]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29789.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pajaron, Marjorie C. & Vasquez, Glacer Niño A., 2021. "How effective is community quarantine in the Philippines? A quasi-experimental analysis," GLO Discussion Paper Series 782, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "Can relief measures nudge compliance in a public health crisis? Evidence from a kinked fiscal policy rule," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 407-428.
    4. Berniell, Inés & Facchini, Gabriel, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdown and domestic violence: Evidence from internet-search behavior in 11 countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Andrea Flores & George-Levi Gayle, 2022. "Disparities in COVID-19’s Impact on Employment and Household Consumption," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(4), pages 224-265, October.
    6. Bird, Matthew D. & Arispe, Samuel & Muñoz, Paula & Freier, Luisa Feline, 2023. "Trust, social protection, and compliance: Moral hazard in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 279-295.
    7. Amare, Mulubrhan & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tiberti, Luca & Chamberlin, Jordan, 2021. "COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    8. Palacios-Lopez,Amparo & Newhouse,David Locke & Pape,Utz Johann & Khamis,Melanie & Weber,Michael & Prinz,Daniel, 2021. "The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries : Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9510, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    work mobility; compliance; lockdown; poverty; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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