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L'investissement des entreprises pénalisé par le Brexit

Author

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  • Magali Dauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

À l'heure où les perspectives de commerce mondial demeurent orientées à la baisse, la demande intérieure britannique peine à rester dynamique : la consommation des ménages s'est essoufflée en fin d'année tandis que l'investissement chute de 0,2 % en 2018. Cette dernière baisse est à imputer en quasi-totalité à l'investissement des entreprises non financières (55% de la FBCF en volume) qui a baissé consécutivement durant les quatre trimestres de l'année (graphique 1) : atteignant -2,6 % en 2018. L'investissement peut être expliqué par un modèle à correction d'erreur. Celui utilisé à l'OFCE pour les prévisions de l'investissement des entreprises non financières au Royaume-Uni bénéficie d'un ajustement pouvant être considéré comme « correct » au regard de son pouvoir explicatif (le coefficient de détermination est de 85%) sur la période pré-referendum (1987T2 – 2016T2). Si nous simulons la trajectoire de l'investissement après le référendum de 2016 (en bleu clair), on remarque que celle-ci dévie des données d'investissement reportées par l'ONS (bleu foncé) de façon systématique. Ce résultat est conforme à ceux que l'on peut trouver dans la littérature récente montrant également que les modèles tendent systématiquement à surévaluer le taux d'investissement des entreprises britanniques depuis 2016. De 0,5 point de PIB en 2017, l'écart n'a cessé de progresser en 2018 pour atteindre un peu plus d'un point de PIB au dernier trimestre.

Suggested Citation

  • Magali Dauvin, 2019. "L'investissement des entreprises pénalisé par le Brexit," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03471457, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03471457
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03471457
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucyna Gornicka, 2018. "Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK," IMF Working Papers 2018/247, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Crowley, M. A. & Exton, O. & Han, L., 2018. "Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    4. Smietanka, Pawel & Bloom, Nicholas & Mizen, Paul, 2018. "Business investment, cash holding and uncertainty since the Great Financial Crisis," Bank of England working papers 753, Bank of England.
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