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The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities

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  • Guillaume Chapelle

    (LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract

This paper uses a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate the impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used to fight the 1918 influenza pandemic and control the resultant mortality in 43 U.S. cities. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing, as implemented in 1918, and when applied for a relatively long and sustained time, might have reduced individual and herd immunity and the population general health condition, thereby leading to a significantly higher number of deaths in subsequent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Chapelle, 2020. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03389177, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03389177
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03389177
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    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
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    Cited by:

    1. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-pharmaceutical interventions; 1918 influenza; difference-in-differences; health policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

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