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Of ants and voters: maximum entropy prediction and agent based models with recruitment

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  • Sylvain Barde

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Maximum entropy predictions are made for the Kirman ant model as well as the Abrams-Strogatz model of language competition, also known as the voter model. In both cases the maximum entropy methodology provides good predictions of the limiting distribution of states, as was already the case for the Schelling model of segregation. An additional contribution, the analysis of the models reveals the key role played by relative entropy and the model in controlling the time horizon of the prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Of ants and voters: maximum entropy prediction and agent based models with recruitment," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01071853, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01071853
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.124.0147
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01071853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Foley Duncan K., 1994. "A Statistical Equilibrium Theory of Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 321-345, April.
    2. Daniel M. Abrams & Steven H. Strogatz, 2003. "Modelling the dynamics of language death," Nature, Nature, vol. 424(6951), pages 900-900, August.
    3. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    4. Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Back to the future: economic rationality and maximum entropy prediction," Studies in Economics 1202, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    5. Alexis Toda, 2010. "Existence of a statistical equilibrium for an economy with endogenous offer sets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(3), pages 379-415, December.
    6. Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael, 2009. "Network structure and N-dependence in agent-based herding models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 78-92, January.
    7. Stauffer, Dietrich & Castelló, Xavier & Eguíluz, Víctor M. & San Miguel, Maxi, 2007. "Microscopic Abrams–Strogatz model of language competition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 835-842.
    8. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-493, May.
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    1. Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Back to the future: economic rationality and maximum entropy prediction," Studies in Economics 1202, School of Economics, University of Kent.

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