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Back to the Future: Economic Self-Organisation and Maximum Entropy Prediction

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  • Sylvain Barde

Abstract

This paper shows that signal restoration methodology is appropriate for predicting the equilibrium state of certain economic systems. A formal justification for this is provided by proving the existence of finite improvement paths in object allocation problems under weak assumptions on preferences, linking any initial condition to a Nash equilibrium. Because a finite improvement path is made up of a sequence of systematic best-responses, backwards movement from the equilibrium back to the initial condition can be treated like the realisation of a noise process. This underpins the use of signal restoration to predict the equilibrium from the initial condition, and an illustration is provided through an application of maximum entropy signal restoration to the Schelling model of segregation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Barde, 2015. "Back to the Future: Economic Self-Organisation and Maximum Entropy Prediction," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 337-358, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:45:y:2015:i:2:p:337-358
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-014-9422-2
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information entropy; Self-organisation; Potential function; Schelling segregation; C02; C11; C63; D80;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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