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The Complex Crises Database: 70 Years of Macroeconomic Crises

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  • Manuel Bétin

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Umberto Collodel

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

While the recent empirical literature on macroeconomic crises focused on a limited subset of events (e.g. banking, currency and sovereign), macroeconomic crises are usually characterized by large scale domino effects that involve a much wider and heterogeneous array of sectors and transform them into highly complex events. This data limitation, in turn, hampers the understanding of these chaotic and painful episodes for researchers and policymakers alike. After building a raw corpus of roughly 23,000 International Monetary Fund country reports, we harness the power of text mining to produce a new database on crises discussion: the database covers 20 different types of economic, financial and non economic events for a sample of 181 countries over the period 1950-2019. We document a substantial rise in complexity of macroeconomic crises throughout the X X and X X I t h century and a higher centrality of the non-fundamental channel in the system.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Bétin & Umberto Collodel, 2021. "The Complex Crises Database: 70 Years of Macroeconomic Crises," PSE Working Papers halshs-03268889, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03268889
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03268889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Financial crises; Narrative Economics; IMF; Text Analysis; Complexity;
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