IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/hal-02549422.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Adverse Effect of Finance on Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Maxime Fajeau

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, a strand of the literature has documented a threshold beyond which financial development tends to affect growth adversely. The evidence, however, rests heavily on internal instrument identification strategies, whose reliability has received surprisingly little attention so far in the finance-growth literature. Therefore, the present paper conducts a reappraisal of the non-linear conclusion twofold. First, in light of new data, second, by a thorough assessment of the identification strategy. Evidence points out that a series of unaddressed issues affecting the system-gmm setup results in spurious threshold regressions and overfitting of outliers. Simple cross-country analysis still suggests a positive association for low levels of private credit. However, adequately accounting for country heterogeneity, along with a more contained use of instruments, points to an overall damaging influence of financial development on economic growth. This association is stronger for more recent periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxime Fajeau, 2020. "The Adverse Effect of Finance on Growth," PSE Working Papers hal-02549422, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-02549422
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://pjse.hal.science/hal-02549422
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pjse.hal.science/hal-02549422/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badi Baltagi & Panicos Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2007. "Financial Development, Openness and Institutions: Evidence from Panel Data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 166, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. N/A, 2004. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 190(1), pages 8-32, October.
    3. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
    4. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, July.
    5. Panicos O. Demetriades & Johan M. Rewilak & Peter L. Rousseau, 2024. "Finance, Growth, and Fragility," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 29-49, August.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    7. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November.
    8. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    9. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    10. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Rousseau, Peter L., 2016. "The changing face of financial development," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 87-90.
    11. N/A, 2005. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 191(1), pages 8-30, January.
    12. Baltagi, Badi H. & Demetriades, Panicos O. & Law, Siong Hook, 2009. "Financial development and openness: Evidence from panel data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 285-296, July.
    13. Mehrhoff, Jens, 2009. "A solution to the problem of too many instruments in dynamic panel data GMM," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Panicos Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2006. "Finance, institutions and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 245-260.
    15. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Growth of Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 275-326.
    16. Siong Hook Law, 2007. "Openness and Financial Development," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 145-165, May.
    17. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 222-240, April.
    18. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    19. Mehrhoff, Jens, 2009. "A solution to the problem of too many instruments in dynamic panel data GMM," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 171, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fajeau, Maxime, 2021. "Too much finance or too many weak instruments?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 14-36.
    2. Badi H. Baltagi, 2021. "Dynamic Panel Data Models," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, edition 6, chapter 0, pages 187-228, Springer.
    3. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    4. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    5. Sebastian Kripfganz & Claudia Schwarz, 2019. "Estimation of linear dynamic panel data models with time‐invariant regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 526-546, June.
    6. Enrique Moral‐Benito, 2016. "Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 584-602, April.
    7. Sigmund, Michael & Ferstl, Robert, 2021. "Panel vector autoregression in R with the package panelvar," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 693-720.
    8. Mr. Andrew J Swiston & Mr. Luis D Barrot, 2011. "The Role of Structural Reforms in Raising Economic Growth in Central America," IMF Working Papers 2011/248, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Lea Steininger & Michael Sigmund, 2020. "Reciprocity in bank regulatory reforms and income inequality: first evidence from a panel vector autoregression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1537-1572, October.
    10. Guariglia, Alessandra & Poncet, Sandra, 2008. "Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 633-657, December.
    11. Lee, Angela Y. & Aaker, Jennifer L., 2006. "A Monte Carlo Study of Growth Regressions," Research Papers 1836r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    12. Susie Lee & Ingmar Schumacher, 2011. "When does financial sector (in)stability induce financial reforms?," Working Papers hal-00637954, HAL.
    13. Emna Trabelsi, 2019. "Do independence and transparency matter for bank development? A new lookup on emerging and developing countries," Post-Print hal-02162780, HAL.
    14. Johannes Blum & Klaus Gründler, 2020. "Political Stability and Economic Prosperity: Are Coups Bad for Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8317, CESifo.
    15. Maryam Almasifard & Sasan Torabzadeh Khorasani, 2017. "Relationship Between Domestic Production in Agricultural and Industrial Sectors and Purchasing Power by Controlling for International Trade Variables (Iran)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 244-253.
    16. Alam, Ashraful & Uddin, Moshfique & Yazdifar, Hassan & Shafique, Sujana & Lartey, Theophilus, 2020. "R&D investment, firm performance and moderating role of system and safeguard: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 94-105.
    17. Abonazel, Mohamed R., 2016. "Bias Correction Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," MPRA Paper 70628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2006. "The effects of dynamic feedbacks on LS and MM estimator accuracy in panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 409-444, June.
    19. Mohl, Philipp & Hagen, Tobias, 2011. "Do EU structural funds promote regional employment? Evidence from dynamic panel data models," Working Paper Series 1403, European Central Bank.
    20. Jeffrey Kouton, 2021. "The impact of renewable energy consumption on inclusive growth: panel data analysis in 44 African countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 145-170, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Growth; Non-linearity; System GMM; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-02549422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.