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Confidence as a Priority Signal

Author

Listed:
  • David Aguilar-Lleyda

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Maxime Lemarchand

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent de Gardelle

    (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

When dealing with multiple tasks, we must establish the order in which to tackle them. In multiple experiments, including a preregistered replication (Ns = 16–105), we found that confidence, or the subjective accuracy of decisions, acts as a priority signal, both when ordering responses about tasks already completed or ordering tasks yet to be completed. Specifically, when participants categorized perceptual stimuli along two dimensions, they tended to first give the decision associated with higher confidence. When participants selected which of two tasks they wanted to perform first, they were slightly biased toward the task associated with higher confidence. This finding extends to nonperceptual decisions (mental calculation) and cannot be reduced to effects of task difficulty, response accuracy, response availability, or implicit demands. Our results thus support the role of confidence as a priority signal, thereby suggesting a new way in which it may regulate human behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • David Aguilar-Lleyda & Maxime Lemarchand & Vincent de Gardelle, 2020. "Confidence as a Priority Signal," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-02958760, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-02958760
    DOI: 10.1177/0956797620925039
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02958760
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Kepecs & Naoshige Uchida & Hatim A. Zariwala & Zachary F. Mainen, 2008. "Neural correlates, computation and behavioural impact of decision confidence," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7210), pages 227-231, September.
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