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Je t'aime, moi non plus : Bilateral opinions and international trade

Author

Listed:
  • Anne-Célia Disdier

    (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

  • Thierry Mayer

    (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between bilateral trade patterns and opinions. It uses the Eurobarometer public opinion surveys published by the European Commission, which provide data on the share of the population in each EU15 member country in favour of each CEEC joining the EU. Our results first suggest that bilateral opinions have a statistically robust and relatively large effect on imports, even when standard and new covariates capturing proximity between countries are controlled for. We interpret this effect as reflecting a positive impact of "bilateral affinity" on trade patterns. We also show that it is possible to go some way towards explaining the variance in bilateral opinions among our sample. Last we provide some preliminary attempt to determine causality between bilateral opinions and imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Célia Disdier & Thierry Mayer, 2007. "Je t'aime, moi non plus : Bilateral opinions and international trade," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00267450, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-00267450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.09.021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Enlargement; Gravity; Bilateral opinions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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