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Costos y beneficios de la carbono-neutralidad en Perú: Una evaluación robusta

Author

Listed:
  • Jairo Quirós-Tortós

    (UCR - Universidad de Costa Rica)

  • Guido Godínez- Zamora

    (UCR - Universidad de Costa Rica)

  • Daniel Gerardo de La Torre Ugarte

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

  • Carlos Heros
  • Juan Lazo Lazo

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

  • Elías Ruiz

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Berioska Quispe

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Daniella Diez Canseco
  • Freddy Garro

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Jimena Mora

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Lorenzo Eguren

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Milagros Sandoval

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Silke Campos

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Micol Salmeri

    (2050 Pathways Platform)

  • Richard Baron

    (2050 Pathways Platform)

  • Jaime Fernandez-Baca

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

  • Ana Saori Iju Fukushima

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

  • Valentina Saavedra

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

  • Adrien Vogt-Schilb

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

Abstract

Cumplir con las metas del Acuerdo de Paris requiere que todos los países lleguen a cero emisiones netas de carbono alrededor de 2050. Este estudio evalúa los costos y beneficios de distintas rutas de descarbonización en los sectores de agricultura, silvicultura y otros usos de la tierra; transporte; energía; residuos; y procesos industriales en Perú. En sus páginas demuestra que es posible lograr cero emisiones netas de carbono para 2050, mediante transformaciones sectoriales como generación de electricidad a base de energía renovable, electrificación de la flota vehicular y de los usos de la energía, eficiencia energética, reducción de la deforestación, mejores prácticas agrícolas y ganaderas, cambios en las dietas, y mejoras en el manejo de residuos y en los procesos industriales. Estas transformaciones brindan un beneficio neto de US$ 140.000 millones, gracias a ahorros operativos (incluidos ahorros de energía), mejoras en la productividad e ingresos por servicios ecosistémicos, y favorecen la salud, entre otros beneficios. Además, el estudio evalúa 1.000 posibles rutas de descarbonización adicionales para analizar el efecto de 201 factores de incertidumbre sobre emisiones, costos y beneficios, utilizando el método de toma de decisiones robusta. Las transformaciones sectoriales modeladas traen beneficios netos de entre US$ 20.000 millones y US$ 391.000 millones y permiten reducir las emisiones entre 260 MtCO2e y 520 MtCO2e para 2050. Estos resultados sustentan la actualización de la Estrategia Nacional ante el Cambio climático del Gobierno del Perú y sus políticas de reactivación económica posteriores a la pandemia.

Suggested Citation

  • Jairo Quirós-Tortós & Guido Godínez- Zamora & Daniel Gerardo de La Torre Ugarte & Carlos Heros & Juan Lazo Lazo & Elías Ruiz & Berioska Quispe & Daniella Diez Canseco & Freddy Garro & Jimena Mora & Lo, 2021. "Costos y beneficios de la carbono-neutralidad en Perú: Una evaluación robusta," Post-Print halshs-03318133, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03318133
    DOI: 10.18235/0003286
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03318133
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    1. Victor-Gallardo, Luis & Zúñiga, Mónica Rodríguez & Quirós-Tortós, Jairo & Jaramillo, Marcela & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2024. "Policy options to mitigate the fiscal impact of road transport decarbonization: Application to Costa Rica," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

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