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A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul Tariq

    (RAND)

  • Robert Jay Lempert

    (RAND)

  • John Riverson

    (Paradigm)

  • Marla Schwartz

    (UCLA)

  • Neil Berg

    (RAND)

Abstract

Climate change can significantly affect water quality, in addition contributing non-stationarity and deep uncertainty that complicates water quality management. But most of the total maximum daily load (TMDL) implementation plans crafted to meet water quality standards in the USA are developed assuming stationary climate and at best a small number of land use futures, although neither assumption seems reliably justified. To address this challenge, this study employs robust decision making (RDM) methods, commonly used to help develop water supply plans, to stress test the proposed Enhanced Watershed Management Plan (EWMP), a TMDL implementation plan, for the Tujunga Wash, the largest subwatershed of the Los Angeles River, over a wide range of climate and land use futures. We find that climate change could significantly reduce the ability of the Tujunga EWMP to meet water quality goals; however, meeting the city’s goals for increasing permeable land cover offsets the risk of non-compliance in the face of climate change uncertainties. This study also introduces innovations in RDM analyses, including: treatment of the deeply uncertain incidence of extreme precipitation events, an explicit link between RDM scenario discovery methods and the specification of signposts for adaptive policy pathways, and the use of (imprecise) probabilistic climate projections to inform the choice among robust adaptive policy pathways. The paper also contributes to a larger debate over how to address climate and other uncertainties in regulatory processes involving water quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Tariq & Robert Jay Lempert & John Riverson & Marla Schwartz & Neil Berg, 2017. "A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 625-639, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2062-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2062-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Lempert, 2013. "Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 627-646, April.
    2. Hallegatte, Stephane & Shah, Ankur & Lempert, Robert & Brown, Casey & Gill, Stuart, 2012. "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6193, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christine M. Albano & Maureen I. McCarthy & Michael D. Dettinger & Stephanie A. McAfee, 2021. "Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans & Geremy Panthou, 2019. "How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 267-283, March.
    3. Hurford, A.P. & Harou, J.J. & Bonzanigo, L. & Ray, P.A. & Karki, P. & Bharati, L. & Chinnasamy, P., 2020. "Efficient and robust hydropower system design under uncertainty - A demonstration in Nepal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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