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Demographic Transition, Involuntary Unemployment and Intergenerational Redistribution: simulations in an AGEM framework
[Transition démographique, chômage involontaire et redistribution intergénérationnelle : simulations dans un cadre d'équilibre général à générations imbriquées]

Author

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  • Mouez Fodha

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patricia Le Maitre

    (UBS Vannes - Université de Bretagne Sud - Vannes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud)

Abstract

Pay as-you-go social security schemes will face increasing difficulties in the next few years due to population aging, which results from both extension of life expectancy and sharp decrease in fertility rates. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate within a computable general equilibrium model the consequences of different reforms within an economy with two types of agents: unqualified ones facing unemployment and qualified ones. We show that a mixed reform with two instruments (introduction of a funded pension system and decreasing of benefits) is Pareto-improving in the long term, while damaging welfare distribution. Morerover, simultations show that the increase of the legal retirement age should be up to seven years.

Suggested Citation

  • Mouez Fodha & Patricia Le Maitre, 2007. "Demographic Transition, Involuntary Unemployment and Intergenerational Redistribution: simulations in an AGEM framework [Transition démographique, chômage involontaire et redistribution intergénéra," Post-Print halshs-00144652, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00144652
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00144652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overlapping generations model; Pay as-you-go pension system; ageing population; involuntary unemployment; Générations imbriquées; système de retraite; vieillissement de la population; chômage involontaire;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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