Scenarios, probability and possible futures
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00003925v2
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Stephen H. Schneider, 2001. "What is 'dangerous' climate change?," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6833), pages 17-19, May.
- Arnulf Grübler & Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 2001. "Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6842), pages 15-15, July.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Rob Swart & Lenny Bernstein & Minh Ha-Duong & Arthur Petersen, 2009. "Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 1-29, January.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Minh Ha-Duong, 2012.
"Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions,"
Working Papers
halshs-00008089, HAL.
- Minh Ha-Duong, 2012. "Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00008089, HAL.
- Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay & Cecilia Conde, 2012. "A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 455-479, July.
- Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
- Olaleye, Olaitan & Baker, Erin, 2015. "Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-216.
- Tulkens, Philippe & Tulkens, Henry, 2006.
"The White House and the Kyoto Protocol: Double Standards on Uncertainties and Their Consequences,"
Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers
12063, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Philippe Tulkens & Henry Tulkens, 2006. "The White House and the Kyoto Protocol: Double Standards on Uncertainties and Their Consequences," Working Papers 2006.89, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Francisco Estrada & Richard S. J. Tol, 2015.
"Toward Impact Functions For Stochastic Climate Change,"
Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-13, November.
- Richard S.J. Tol & Francisco Estrada, 2013. "Towards Impact Functions for Stochastic Climate Change," Working Paper Series 6113, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
- Espinet, Xavier & Schweikert, Amy & van den Heever, Nicola & Chinowsky, Paul, 2016. "Planning resilient roads for the future environment and climate change: Quantifying the vulnerability of the primary transport infrastructure system in Mexico," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 78-86.
- Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal & Myles Allen & Ottmar Edenhofer & Christopher B. Field & Gary Yohe, 2013.
"Risk management and climate change,"
Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 447-450, May.
- Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal & Myles Allen & Ottmar Edenhofer & Christopher B. Field & Gary Yohe, 2012. "Risk Management and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 18607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Moss, 2011. "Reducing doubt about uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s third assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 641-658, October.
- Judith Curry, 2011. "Reasoning about climate uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 723-732, October.
- Nigel W. Arnell & Emma L. Tompkins & W. Neil Adger, 2005. "Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1419-1431, December.
- DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
- Tol, Richard S.J., 2007.
"Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation,"
Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 424-432, January.
- Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Europe’S Long Term Climate Target: A Critical Evaluation," Working Papers FNU-92, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2005.
- José Edmundo de Almeida Pais & Hugo D. N. Raposo & José Torres Farinha & Antonio J. Marques Cardoso & Pedro Alexandre Marques, 2021. "Optimizing the Life Cycle of Physical Assets through an Integrated Life Cycle Assessment Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, September.
- Donghoon Cha & Sangeun Lee & Heekyung Park, 2012. "Investigating the Vulnerability of Dry-Season Water Supplies to Climate Change: A Case Study of the Gwangdong Reservoir Drought Management System, Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4183-4201, November.
- Céline Guivarch & Julie Rozenberg & Vanessa Schweizer, 2016. "The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database," Post-Print halshs-01292901, HAL.
- Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Communicating Trade-offs amid Controversial Science: Decision Support for Climate Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 74-90.
- Baard, Patrik & Carlsen, Henrik & Edvardsson Björnberg, Karin & Vredin Johansson, Maria, 2011. "Scenarios and Sustainability A Swedish Case Study of Adaptation Tools for Local Decision-Makers," Working Papers 124, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Robert Lempert, 2013. "Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 627-646, April.
- Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Dangerous Interference With The Climate System: An Economic Assessment," Working Paper Series 10016, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
More about this item
Keywords
Futures; futurible; scenarios; possibility; imprecise probabilities; uncertainty; fuzzy logic;All these keywords.
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-FOR-2006-05-13 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00003925. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.