IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04747574.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Frauke Wiese

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Nicolas Taillard

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Emile Balembois

    (Association Négawatt, Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], EVS - Environnement, Ville, Société - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ALLHiS - Approches Littéraires, Linguistiques et Historiques des Sources - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne, FAYOL-ENSMSE - Institut Henri Fayol - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], FAYOL-ENSMSE - Département Génie de l’environnement pour les organisations - Institut Henri Fayol - ENSM ST-ETIENNE - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de St Etienne)

  • Benjamin Best
  • Stephane Bourgeois

    (Association Négawatt)

  • José Campos

    (ELTE - Eötvös Loránd University)

  • Luisa Cordroch

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Mathilde Djelali

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Alexandre Gabert

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Adrien Jacob

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Elliott Johnson

    (Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment - University of Leeds)

  • Sébastien Meyer

    (IMMC - Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Béla Munkácsy

    (Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography - ELTE - Eötvös Loránd University)

  • Lorenzo Pagliano

    (POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan])

  • Sylvain Quoilin

    (Université de Liège)

  • Andrea Roscetti

    (POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan])

  • Johannes Thema

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Paolo Thiran

    (IMMC - Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Adrien Toledano

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Bendix Vogel

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Carina Zell-Ziegler

    (TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Yves Marignac

    (Association Négawatt)

Abstract

A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 ∘ C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures. Results show that by 2050, 50% final energy demand reduction compared to 2019 is possible in Europe, with at least 40% of it attributable to various sufficiency measures across all sectors. This reduction enables a 77% renewable energy share in 2040 and 100% in 2050, with very limited need for imports from outside of Europe and no carbon sequestration technologies. Sufficiency enables increased fairness between countries through the convergence towards a more equitable share of energy service levels. Here we show, that without sufficiency measures, Europe misses the opportunity to transform energy demand leaving considerable pressure on supply side changes combined with unproven carbon removal technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Frauke Wiese & Nicolas Taillard & Emile Balembois & Benjamin Best & Stephane Bourgeois & José Campos & Luisa Cordroch & Mathilde Djelali & Alexandre Gabert & Adrien Jacob & Elliott Johnson & Sébastien, 2024. "The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe," Post-Print hal-04747574, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04747574
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04747574v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04747574v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    2. John Barrett & Steve Pye & Sam Betts-Davies & Oliver Broad & James Price & Nick Eyre & Jillian Anable & Christian Brand & George Bennett & Rachel Carr-Whitworth & Alice Garvey & Jannik Giesekam & Greg, 2022. "Energy demand reduction options for meeting national zero-emission targets in the United Kingdom," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 726-735, August.
    3. Pauliuk, Stefan, 2024. "Decent living standards, prosperity, and excessive consumption in the Lorenz curve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    4. Felix Creutzig & Leila Niamir & Xuemei Bai & Max Callaghan & Jonathan Cullen & Julio Díaz-José & Maria Figueroa & Arnulf Grubler & William F. Lamb & Adrian Leip & Eric Masanet & Érika Mata & Linus Mat, 2022. "Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 36-46, January.
    5. Felix Creutzig & Joyashree Roy & William F. Lamb & Inês M. L. Azevedo & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Holger Dalkmann & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Frank W. Geels & Arnulf Grubler & Cameron Hepburn & Edgar G. H, 2018. "Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 260-263, April.
    6. Aljoša Slameršak & Giorgos Kallis & Daniel W. O’Neill, 2022. "Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Rogge, Karoline S. & Reichardt, Kristin, 2016. "Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: An extended concept and framework for analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1620-1635.
    8. Narasimha D. Rao & Jihoon Min, 2018. "Decent Living Standards: Material Prerequisites for Human Wellbeing," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 225-244, July.
    9. Jianliang Wang & Yuru Yang & Yongmei Bentley & Xu Geng & Xiaojie Liu, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Bioenergy from a Global Perspective: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Popp, J. & Lakner, Z. & Harangi-Rákos, M. & Fári, M., 2014. "The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 559-578.
    11. Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Jungell-Michelsson, Jessica & Heikkurinen, Pasi, 2022. "Sufficiency: A systematic literature review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frauke Wiese & Nicolas Taillard & Emile Balembois & Benjamin Best & Stephane Bourgeois & José Campos & Luisa Cordroch & Mathilde Djelali & Alexandre Gabert & Adrien Jacob & Elliott Johnson & Sébastien, 2024. "The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. McGarry, Connor & Dixon, James & Flower, Jack & Bukhsh, Waqquas & Brand, Christian & Bell, Keith & Galloway, Stuart, 2024. "Electrified heat and transport: Energy demand futures, their impacts on power networks and what it means for system flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    3. Johnson, Elliott & Betts-Davies, Sam & Barrett, John, 2023. "Comparative analysis of UK net-zero scenarios: The role of energy demand reduction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Anna Kristín Einarsdóttir & Gereon tho Pesch & Kevin Joseph Dillman & Marta Rós Karlsdóttir & Jukka Heinonen, 2024. "Consumption-Based Energy Footprints in Iceland: High and Equally Distributed," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Viktorija Bobinaite & Inga Konstantinaviciute & Arvydas Galinis & Mária Bartek-Lesi & Viktor Rácz & Bettina Dézsi, 2022. "Energy Sufficiency in the Household Sector of Lithuania and Hungary: The Case of Heated Floor Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Zia Wadud & Muhammad Adeel & Jillian Anable, 2024. "Understanding the large role of long-distance travel in carbon emissions from passenger travel," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(9), pages 1129-1138, September.
    7. Virág, Doris & Wiedenhofer, Dominik & Baumgart, André & Matej, Sarah & Krausmann, Fridolin & Min, Jihoon & Rao, Narasimha D. & Haberl, Helmut, 2022. "How much infrastructure is required to support decent mobility for all? An exploratory assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    8. Hickel, Jason & Sullivan, Dylan, 2024. "How much growth is required to achieve good lives for all? Insights from needs-based analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124460, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Lei, Mingyu & Ding, Qun & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2022. "The exploration of joint carbon mitigation actions between demand- and supply-side for specific household consumption behaviors — A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    10. Gough, Ian & Horn, Stefan & Rogers, Charlotte & Tunstall, Rebecca, 2024. "Fair decarbonisation of housing in the UK: a sufficiency approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122477, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Smetschka, Barbara & Wiedenhofer, Dominik & Egger, Claudine & Haselsteiner, Edeltraud & Moran, Daniel & Gaube, Veronika, 2019. "Time Matters: The Carbon Footprint of Everyday Activities in Austria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Brockway, Paul E. & Taylor, Peter G. & Norman, Jonathan B., 2024. "Exploring the effects of mineral depletion on renewable energy technologies net energy returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    13. Matos, Stelvia & Viardot, Eric & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Geels, Frank W. & Xiong, Yu, 2022. "Innovation and climate change: A review and introduction to the special issue," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Nieto, Jaime & Brockway, Paul E. & Sakai, Marco & Barrett, John, 2024. "Assessing the energy and socio-macroeconomic impacts of the EV transition: A UK case study 2020–2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    15. Xiaoyang Zhong & Mingming Hu & Sebastiaan Deetman & Bernhard Steubing & Hai Xiang Lin & Glenn Aguilar Hernandez & Carina Harpprecht & Chunbo Zhang & Arnold Tukker & Paul Behrens, 2021. "Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Haozhe Yang & Ranjit Deshmukh & Sangwon Suh, 2023. "Global transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Plötz, Patrick & Wachsmuth, Jakob & Sprei, Frances & Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Neuner, Felix & Link, Steffen, 2023. "Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-carbon road transport in Europe," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S02/2023, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    18. Lisa Winkler & Drew Pearce & Jenny Nelson & Oytun Babacan, 2023. "The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    19. Bhattacharya, Subhadip & Banerjee, Rangan & Ramadesigan, Venkatasailanathan & Liebman, Ariel & Dargaville, Roger, 2024. "Bending the emission curve ― The role of renewables and nuclear power in achieving a net-zero power system in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    20. Díaz González, Carlos A. & Pacheco Sandoval, Leonardo, 2020. "Sustainability aspects of biomass gasification systems for small power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04747574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.