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The arrival of the new

Author

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  • Luigi Marengo

    (LUISS - Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli [Roma])

  • Paolo Zeppini

    (University of Bath [Bath])

Abstract

In this work we present a number of urn models in which, contrary to standard Pólya urns, the number of competing alternatives is not given from the outset but may increase with the arrival of innovations. We begin by describing a variant of Pólya urns, first introduced by Fred Hoppe, in which balls of previously non-existing colors are added with some (declining) probability. We then propose new variants in which the probability of the arrival of new colors is itself subject to adaptive change depending on the success of past innovations and discuss applications to evolutionary models of technologies and industries. We numerically simulate different specifications of these urns with adaptively changing mutation rate and show that they can account for complex patterns of evolution in which periods of exploration and innovation are followed by periods in which the dynamics of the system is driven by selection among a stable set of alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Marengo & Paolo Zeppini, 2016. "The arrival of the new," Post-Print hal-04575570, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04575570
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-015-0438-0
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04575570
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    2. François Lafond & Daniel Kim, 2019. "Long-run dynamics of the U.S. patent classification system," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 631-664, April.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2017. "The footprint of evolutionary processes of learning and selection upon the statistical properties of industrial dynamics," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 26(2), pages 187-210.
    4. Uwe Cantner & Simone Vannuccini, 2017. "Innovation and lock-in," Chapters, in: Harald Bathelt & Patrick Cohendet & Sebastian Henn & Laurent Simon (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Innovation and Knowledge Creation, chapter 11, pages 165-181, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Cantner, Uwe & Vannuccini, Simone, 2021. "Pervasive technologies and industrial linkages: Modeling acquired purposes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 386-399.
    6. Hickey, Joseph, 2024. "Simple model of market share dynamics based on clients’ firm-switching decisions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 635(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Polya urns; Adaptation; Innovation; Increasing returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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