IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04561125.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Research Habits in Financial Modelling: The Case of Non-normality of Market Returns in the 1970s and the 1980s

Author

Listed:
  • Boudewijn de Bruin

    (University of Groningen [Groningen])

  • Christian Walter

    (LAP - Laboratoire d’anthropologie politique – Approches interdisciplinaires et critiques des mondes contemporains, UMR 8177 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this chapter, one considers finance at its very foundations, namely, at the place where assumptions are being made about the ways to measure the two key ingredients of finance: risk and return. It is well known that returns for a large class of assets display a number of stylized facts that cannot be squared with the traditional views of 1960s financial economics (normality and continuity assumptions, i.e. Brownian representation of market dynamics). Despite the empirical counterevidence, normality and continuity assumptions were part and parcel of financial theory and practice, embedded in all financial practices and beliefs. Our aim is to build on this puzzle for extracting some clues revealing the use of one research strategy in academic community, model tinkering defined as a particular research habit. We choose to focus on one specific moment of the scientific controversies in academic finance: the `leptokurtic crisis' opened by Mandelbrot in 1962. The profoundness of the crisis came from the angle of the Mandelbrot's attack: not only he emphasized an empirical inadequacy of the Brownian representation, but also he argued for an inadequate grounding of this representation. We give some insights in this crisis and display the model tinkering strategies of the financial academic community in the 1970s and the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Boudewijn de Bruin & Christian Walter, 2017. "Research Habits in Financial Modelling: The Case of Non-normality of Market Returns in the 1970s and the 1980s," Post-Print hal-04561125, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04561125
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-49872-0_5
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04561125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04561125/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/978-3-319-49872-0_5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. James Press, 1967. "A Compound Events Model for Security Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 317-317.
    2. Marco Pagano & Paolo Volpin, 2010. "Credit ratings failures and policy options [Cash-in-the-market pricing and optimal resolution of bank failures]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 401-431.
    3. Philippe Jorion, 2009. "Risk Management Lessons from the Credit Crisis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(5), pages 923-933, November.
    4. Danielsson, Jon & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "On time-scaling of risk and the square-root-of-time rule," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2701-2713, October.
    5. Christian Walter, 1996. "Une histoire du concept d'efficience sur les marchés financiers," Post-Print hal-04560336, HAL.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Donald MacKenzie, 2006. "An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262134608, April.
    8. Christian Walter, 1999. "Aux origines de la mesure de performance des fonds d’investissement. Les travaux d’Alfred Cowles," Post-Print hal-04560304, HAL.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
    10. Benmelech, Efraim & Dlugosz, Jennifer, 2009. "The alchemy of CDO credit ratings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 617-634, July.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Larson, Arnold B., 1960. "Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 323441, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    15. Lawrence J. White, 2010. "Markets: The Credit Rating Agencies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 211-226, Spring.
    16. Larson, Arnold B., 1960. "Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12.
    17. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    18. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. "On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-173, March.
    19. Harry V. Roberts, 1959. "Stock‐Market “Patterns” And Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, March.
    20. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    2. Ausloos, Marcel & Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2016. "On the “usual” misunderstandings between econophysics and finance: Some clarifications on modelling approaches and efficient market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 7-14.
    3. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, 2016. "Statistical Modeling Of Stock Returns: Explanatory Or Descriptive? A Historical Survey With Some Methodological Reflections," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 149-164, February.
    4. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, "undated". "Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: Explanatory or Descriptive? A Historical Survey with Some Methodological Reflections," DEOS Working Papers 1331, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    5. Samet Günay & Yanlin Shi, 2016. "Long-Memory in Volatilities of CDS Spreads: Evidences from the Emerging Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 122-137, March.
    6. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, 2012. "Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: A Historical Survey with Methodological Reflections," DEOS Working Papers 1226, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    7. Wai Mun Fong, 1997. "Robust beta estimation: Some empirical evidence," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 167-186.
    8. Subbotin, Alexandre, 2009. "Volatility Models: from Conditional Heteroscedasticity to Cascades at Multiple Horizons," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 15(3), pages 94-138.
    9. Fong, Wai Mun, 1997. "Robust beta estimation: Some empirical evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-186.
    10. Milionis, Alexandros E., 2007. "Efficient capital markets: A statistical definition and comments," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(6), pages 607-613, March.
    11. Kaehler, Jürgen & Marnet, Volker, 1993. "Markov-switching models for exchange-rate dynamics and the pricing of foreign-currency options," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-03, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Paul Handro & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Analyzing Financial Markets Efficiency: Insights from a Bibliometric and Content Review," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 119-175, May.
    13. Guillaume Coqueret, 2016. "Empirical properties of a heterogeneous agent model in large dimensions," Post-Print hal-02088097, HAL.
    14. Nicolau, Juan Luis & Sharma, Abhinav, 2022. "A review of research into drivers of firm value through event studies in tourism and hospitality: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research curated collection on drivers of firm value through event stu," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    15. Nathan Jensen, 2007. "International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 261-280, September.
    16. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2021. "Time-varying properties of asymmetric volatility and multifractality in Bitcoin," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Huber, Christoph & Kirchler, Michael, 2023. "Experiments in finance: A survey of historical trends," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    18. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Borkowski, Bolesław & Krawiec, Monika & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2013. "Impact of volatility estimation method on theoretical option values," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 119-128.
    20. Inoua, Sabiou M. & Smith, Vernon L., 2023. "A classical model of speculative asset price dynamics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04561125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.