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Statistical modeling of stock returns: explanatory ordescriptive? A historical survey with some methodologicalreflections

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  • Koundouri, Phoebe
  • Kourogenis, Nikolaos
  • Pittis, Nikitas

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to survey the statistical models of stock returns that have been suggested in the finance literature since the middle of the twentieth century; second, to examine under the prism of the contemporary philosophy of science, which of the aforementioned models can be classified as explanatory and which as descriptive. Special emphasis is paid on tracing the interactions between the motivation for the birth of statistical models of stock returns in any given historical period and the concurrent changes of the theoretical paradigm in financial economics, as well as those of probability theory.

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  • Koundouri, Phoebe & Kourogenis, Nikolaos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2016. "Statistical modeling of stock returns: explanatory ordescriptive? A historical survey with some methodologicalreflections," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65549, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:65549
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2018. "A Critical Appraisal of Studies Analyzing Co-movement of International Stock Markets," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 151-196, May.
    2. Kiviet Jan F., 2017. "Discriminating between (in)valid External Instruments and (in)valid Exclusion Restrictions," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, January.
    3. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2016. "A critical appraisal of studies analyzing co-movement of international stock markets with a focus on East-Asian indices," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1606, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock returns; statistical model; explanatory model; scientific explanation; market efficiency; Brownian motion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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