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Employment Implication of Coal Phase-Out: Revealing Transition Risks through Downscaling

Author

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  • Thomas Le Gallic

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines)

  • Augustin Danneaux

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines)

  • Julien Lefèvre

    (AgroParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris Saclay (COmUE))

Abstract

This study addresses the need to refine the assessment of employment impacts associated with coal phase-out in transition scenarios. We use a multi-sectoral macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Model enhanced by incorporating detailed data to improve productivity expectations in the coal sector. We also developed a sub-national economies dynamics module enabling the results to be scaled down, which provides qualitatively new information. The analysis quantifies job losses and their timing, highlighting regional disparities and vulnerability. The findings underscore the importance of integrating support policies for affected employees into carbon neutrality programs in order to enhance the feasibility and acceptance of transition pathways.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Le Gallic & Augustin Danneaux & Julien Lefèvre, 2023. "Employment Implication of Coal Phase-Out: Revealing Transition Risks through Downscaling," Post-Print hal-04477762, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04477762
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04477762
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karoliina Isoaho & Jochen Markard, 2020. "The Politics of Technology Decline: Discursive Struggles over Coal Phase‐Out in the UK," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 37(3), pages 342-368, May.
    2. Terry Barker & Eva Alexandri & Jean-Francois Mercure & Yuki Ogawa & Hector Pollitt, 2016. "GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 393-414, May.
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