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Valuing insurance against small probability risks: A meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Selim Mankaï

    (IAE - UCA - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Clermont-Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Sébastien Marchand

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Ngoc Ha Le

    (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

The demand for voluntary insurance against low-probability, high-impact risks is lower than expected. To assess the magnitude of the demand, we conduct a meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies using a dataset of experimentally elicited and survey-based estimates. We find that the average stated willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance is 87% of expected losses. We perform a meta-regression analysis to examine the heterogeneity in aggregate WTP across these studies. The meta-regression reveals that information about loss probability and probability levels positively influence relative willingness to pay, whereas respondents' average income and age have a negative effect. Moreover, we identify cultural sub-factors, such as power distance and uncertainty avoidance, that provided additional explanations for differences in WTP across international samples. Methodological factors related to the sampling and data collection process significantly influence the stated WTP. Our results, robust to model specification and publication bias, are relevant to current debates on stated preferences for low-probability risks management.

Suggested Citation

  • Selim Mankaï & Sébastien Marchand & Ngoc Ha Le, 2024. "Valuing insurance against small probability risks: A meta-analysis," Post-Print hal-04474880, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04474880
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102181
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    Keywords

    Low probability risks; Contingent valuation; Insurance demand; Stated preferences method; Metaanalysis; Economic experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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