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An Incentive†Compatible Experiment on Probabilistic Insurance and Implications for an Insurer's Solvency Level

Author

Listed:
  • Anja Zimmer
  • Helmut Gründl
  • Christian D. Schade
  • Franca Glenzer

Abstract

This article is the first to conduct an incentive†compatible experiment using real monetary payoffs to test the hypothesis of probabilistic insurance, which states that willingness to pay for insurance decreases sharply in the presence of even small default probabilities as compared to a risk†free insurance contract. In our experiment, 181 participants state their willingness to pay for insurance contracts with different levels of default risk. We find that the willingness to pay sharply decreases with increasing default risk. Our results, hence, strongly support the hypothesis of probabilistic insurance. Furthermore, we study the impact of customer reaction to default risk on an insurer's optimal solvency level using our experimentally obtained data on insurance demand. We show that an insurer should choose to be default†free rather than having even a very small default probability. This risk strategy is also optimal when assuming substantial transaction costs for risk management activities undertaken to achieve the maximum solvency level.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Zimmer & Helmut Gründl & Christian D. Schade & Franca Glenzer, 2018. "An Incentive†Compatible Experiment on Probabilistic Insurance and Implications for an Insurer's Solvency Level," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 85(1), pages 245-273, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:85:y:2018:i:1:p:245-273
    DOI: 10.1111/jori.12148
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    Cited by:

    1. Boyer, M. Martin & Box-Couillard, Sébastien & Michaud, Pierre-Carl, 2020. "Demand for annuities: Price sensitivity, risk perceptions, and knowledge," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 883-902.
    2. Biener, Christian & Landmann, Andreas & Santana, Maria Isabel, 2019. "Contract nonperformance risk and uncertainty in insurance markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 65-83.
    3. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Marc A. Ragin & Justin R. Sydnor, 2022. "Insurance demand experiments: Comparing crowdworking to the lab," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1077-1107, December.
    4. Guibril Zerbo, 2024. "Disposition à payer pour l’assurance contre les risques naturels: une étude de terrain au Burkina Faso," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-7, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Sebastian Schlütter, 2019. "Optimal taxation in non-life insurance markets," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 1-26, March.
    6. Sebastian Schlütter, 2019. "Optimal taxation in non-life insurance markets," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 1-26, March.
    7. Jassem Alokla & Arief Daynes & Paraskevas Pagas & Panagiotis Tzouvanas, 2023. "Solvency determinants: evidence from the Takaful insurance industry," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(4), pages 847-871, October.
    8. Kubitza, Christian & Hofmann, Annette & Steinorth, Petra, 2019. "Financial literacy and precautionary insurance," ICIR Working Paper Series 34/19, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    9. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Richard Peter & Marc A. Ragin, 2023. "Probability weighting and insurance demand in a unified framework," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(1), pages 63-109, March.
    10. Eckert, Johanna & Gatzert, Nadine, 2018. "Risk- and value-based management for non-life insurers under solvency constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(2), pages 761-774.
    11. Glenn W. Harrison & Jia Min Ng, 2019. "Behavioral insurance and economic theory: A literature review," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 133-182, July.
    12. Franca Glenzer & Bertrand Achou, 2019. "Annuities, long-term care insurance, and insurer solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 252-276, April.
    13. Timo R. Lambregts & Paul Bruggen & Han Bleichrodt, 2021. "Insurance decisions under nonperformance risk and ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 229-253, December.
    14. Peter, Richard & Ying, Jie, 2020. "Do you trust your insurer? Ambiguity about contract nonperformance and optimal insurance demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 938-954.
    15. Mankaï, Selim & Marchand, Sébastien & Le, Ngoc Ha, 2024. "Valuing insurance against small probability risks: A meta-analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Peter John Robinson & W. J. Wouter Botzen, 2019. "Determinants of Probability Neglect and Risk Attitudes for Disaster Risk: An Online Experimental Study of Flood Insurance Demand among Homeowners," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2514-2527, November.
    17. Grochola, Nicolaus & Browne, Mark Joseph & Gründl, Helmut & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2021. "Exploring the market risk profiles of U.S. and European life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 39/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    18. Glenn W. Harrison & Jia Min Ng, 2018. "Welfare effects of insurance contract non-performance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(1), pages 39-76, May.
    19. Markus Huggenberger & Peter Albrecht, 2022. "Risk pooling and solvency regulation: A policyholder's perspective," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 907-950, December.
    20. Helmut Gründl & Danjela Guxha & Anastasia Kartasheva & Hato Schmeiser, 2021. "Insurability of pandemic risks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 863-902, December.

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