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Baisse de la productivité en France : échec en « maths » ?

Author

Listed:
  • Raphaël Martin
  • Thomas Renault

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Baptiste Roux

Abstract

Le lien entre capital humain et productivité a fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches dont les résultats convergent : le stock de capital humain constitue l'un des déterminants majeurs de la croissance de la productivité (voir les travaux fondateurs de Nelson et Phelps, 1966 ; Lucas, 1988 ou Barro, 1991). Dans un document de travail récent, France Stratégie (2020) évalue quantitativement le rôle prépondérant, à hauteur des trois quarts de l'effet total, du capital humain dans le ralentissement de la productivité au cours des 30 dernières années. Parmi les disciplines évaluées dans le cadre des enquêtes de compétences (lecture et écriture, mathématiques, sciences), les mathématiques focalisent l'attention en raison de la dégradation particulièrement forte des scores français, motivant par la suite la remise du rapport Villani‐Torossian, datant de 2018, ainsi que le rapport de la Commission des finances (2021) sur l'enseignement des mathématiques. L'utilisation de compétences mathématiques est en outre associée aux secteurs de l'innovation, susceptibles d'agir comme moteur de la productivité à l'échelle de l'économie. Jones (1995) estime ainsi que les scientifiques et ingénieurs travaillant en R&D sont à l'origine de 50 % de la croissance américaine de la productivité à long terme. Peri et al. (2015) identifient un lien de causalité positif entre les études scientifiques et les revenus des individus, théoriquement liés à leur productivité. Ce Focus étudie le lien entre le niveau de compétences en mathématiques, ou numératie ci‐après, et la productivité du travail. La première partie s'appuie sur plusieurs enquêtes internationales sur les compétences pour mettre en évidence la dégradation du niveau français en mathématiques depuis 30 ans. Nous caractérisons également l'hétérogénéité de cette dégradation par une étude des résultats des élèves se situant à différentes positions de la distribution des scores. Une fois ce constat exposé, nous évaluons le lien statistique avec la productivité du travail afin d'estimer les risques économiques associés à la baisse de niveau. L'analyse empirique comporte plusieurs spécifications à différentes échelles et établit une corrélation positive entre niveau de compétences en mathématiques et productivité du travail.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaël Martin & Thomas Renault & Baptiste Roux, 2022. "Baisse de la productivité en France : échec en « maths » ?," Post-Print hal-04084079, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04084079
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04084079
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