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Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment

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  • Francesco Drago

    (University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II)

  • Roberto Galbiati

    (UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)

Abstract

We exploit the 2006 Italian prison pardon to evaluate peer effects in criminal behavior. The pardon randomly commutes actual sentences to expected sentences for 40 percent of the Italian prison population. Using prison and geographical origin to construct reference groups for former inmates, we find large indirect effects of this policy. In particular, we find that the reduction in the individuals' recidivism due to an increase in their peers' residual sentence is at least as large as their response to an increase in their own residual sentence. From this result we estimate a social multiplier in crime of two.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati, 2012. "Indirect Effects of a Policy Altering Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Italian Prison Experiment," Post-Print hal-03461249, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03461249
    DOI: 10.1257/app.4.2.199
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03461249
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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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