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Firm liquidity and solvency under the Covid-19 lockdown in France

Author

Listed:
  • Mattia Guerini

    (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa], OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Lionel Nesta

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stefano Schiavo

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We simulate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate solvency using a sample of around one million French nonfinancial companies, assuming they minimize their production costs in the context of a sharp drop in demand. We find that the lockdown triggers an unprecedented increase in the share of illiquid and insolvent firms, with the former more than doubling relative to a No-Covid scenario (growing from 3.8% to more than 10%) and insolvencies increasing by 80% (from 1.8% to 3.2%). The crisis has a heterogeneous effect across sectors, firm size, and region. Sectors such as hotels and restaurants, household services, and construction are the most vulnerable, while wholesale and retail trade, and manufacturing are more resilient. Micro-firms and large businesses are more likely to face solvency issues, whereas SMEs and medium-large firms display lower insolvency rates. The furlough scheme put forward by the government (activité partielle) has been very effective in limiting the number of insolvencies, reducing it by more than 1 percentage point (approximately 12,000 firms in our sample). This crisis will also have an impact on the overall efficiency of the French economic system, as market selection appears to be less efficient during crisis periods relative to "normal times": in fact, the fraction of very productive firms that are insolvent significantly increases in the aftermath of the lockdown. This provides a rationale for policy interventions aimed at supporting efficient, viable, yet illiquid firms weathering the storm. We evaluate the cost of such a scheme aimed at strength-ening firms' financial health to around 8 billion euros.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattia Guerini & Lionel Nesta & Xavier Ragot & Stefano Schiavo, 2020. "Firm liquidity and solvency under the Covid-19 lockdown in France," Post-Print hal-03403022, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03403022
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03403022
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    Cited by:

    1. Aseinov, Dastan & Sulaimanova, Burulcha & Karymshakov, Kamalbek & Azhgaliyeva, Dina, 2022. "What Determines the Adaptation of Enterprises to COVID-19 in CAREC Member Countries: Empirical Evidence from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia," ADBI Working Papers 1299, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Lilas Demmou & Guido Franco & Sara Calligaris & Dennis Dlugosch, 2022. "Liquidity Shortfalls during the COVID 19 Outbreak: Assessment and Policy Responses," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 532-33, pages 47-61.
    3. Carla Marques, 2022. "Modelling the financial situation of Portuguese firms using micro-data: a simulation for the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers o202203, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," IMF Working Papers 2020/207, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Julian Oliver Dörr & Georg Licht & Simona Murmann, 2022. "Small firms and the COVID-19 insolvency gap," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 887-917, February.
    7. Michal Burzynski, 2020. "Labor Market Sorting: The Medium-Term Economic Impact of COVID-19," LISER Working Paper Series 2020-13, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    8. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the economic and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: A value chain approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Annalisa Baldissera, 2022. "The Negotiated Settlement of the Crisis and the Cash Flows of Large Unlisted Italian Companies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 75-91.
    10. Julija Bistrova & Natalja Lace & Ludmila Kasperovica, 2021. "Enterprise Crisis-Resilience and Competitiveness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Stef, Nicolae & Bissieux, Jean-Joachim, 2022. "Resolution of corporate insolvency during COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from France," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Florian Eckert & Heiner Mikosch, 2022. "Firm bankruptcies and start-up activity in Switzerland during the COVID-19 crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-25, December.
    13. Dörr, Julian Oliver & Murmann, Simona & Licht, Georg, 2021. "The COVID-19 insolvency gap: First-round effects of policy responses on SMEs," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-018, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. repec:ctc:sdimse:dime21_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Anna Doś & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala & Joanna Błach, 2022. "The Effect of Business Legal Form on the Perception of COVID-19-Related Disruptions by Households Running a Business," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.

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    Keywords

    Firm liquidity; Solvency; Covid-19 lockdown;
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