IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/1647-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity shortfalls during the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment and policy responses

Author

Listed:
  • Lilas Demmou
  • Guido Franco
  • Sara Calligaris
  • Dennis Dlugosch

Abstract

The paper investigates the financial vulnerability of non-financial firms during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic crisis. In particular, it evaluates the extent to which firms may run into a liquidity crisis following the COVID-19 outbreak and the impact of stylised policy measures to reduce the risks and depth of such crisis. The analysis relies on three ingredients: a simple accounting model, a large dataset reporting firms’ balance sheets for 14 countries and granular data on the magnitude of the shock measuring the impact of confinement measures on economic activity (notably depending on the capacity of each sector to operate by teleworking). Results suggest that, without any policy intervention, up to 38% of firms would face liquidity shortfalls after 10 months since the implementation of confinement measures. Comparing the impact of different policies (tax deferral, debt moratorium and support to wage payments), the analysis shows that government support to relieve wage bills is the most effective tool to reduce liquidity shortages, followed by debt moratorium policies. Finally, the paper zooms into labour market policies and compares the costefficiency of short-term work and wage subsidies schemes, highlighting how their relative efficiency depends on their design.

Suggested Citation

  • Lilas Demmou & Guido Franco & Sara Calligaris & Dennis Dlugosch, 2021. "Liquidity shortfalls during the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment and policy responses," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1647, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1647-en
    DOI: 10.1787/581dba7f-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/581dba7f-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/581dba7f-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mattia Guerini & Lionel Nesta & Xavier Ragot & Stefano Schiavo, 2020. "Firm liquidity and solvency under the Covid-19 lockdown in France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03059232, HAL.
    2. Mattia Guerini & Lionel Nesta & Xavier Ragot & Stefano Schiavo, 2020. "Firm liquidity and solvency under the Covid-19 lockdown in France," Post-Print hal-03403022, HAL.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/a8bbt5m569depe1larqkd498n is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent Sorensen & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez & Vadym Volosovych & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2015. "How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts and Aggregate Implications," NBER Working Papers 21558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sørensen, Bent E & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Volosovych, Vadym & Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2015. "How to construct nationally representative firm level data from the ORBIS global database," CEPR Discussion Papers 10829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David R. Agrawal & Aline Bütikofer, 2022. "Public finance in the era of the COVID-19 crisis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1349-1372, December.
    2. Harasztosi, Péter & Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália & Revoltella, Debora & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 30-48.
    3. Xavier Ragot, 2022. "Comment – Public Support to Companies in Times of Crisis: The Value of Microsimulations based on Company Data," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 532-33, pages 63-69.
    4. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the economic and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: A value chain approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Lalinsky, Tibor & Meriküll, Jaanika & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Productivity-enhancing reallocation during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2947, European Central Bank.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Federico Huneeus & Joseph P. Kaboski & Mauricio Larrain & Sergio L. Schmukler & Mario Vera, 2025. "Crisis Credit, Employment Protection, Indebtedness, and Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 11652, CESifo.
    8. Sarah Guillou & Karsten Mau & Tania Treibich, 2023. "Firms’ financial vulnerabilities during COVID-19: Was the French support package too generous ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03981175, HAL.
    9. Bighelli, Tommaso & Lalinsky, Tibor & Vanhala, Juuso, 2023. "Cross-country evidence on the allocation of COVID-19 government subsidies and consequences for productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Willem Vanlaer & Mattia Picarelli & Wim Marneffe, 2021. "Debt and Private Investment: Does the EU Suffer from a Debt Overhang?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 789-820, September.
    11. Bighelli, Tommaso & Lalinsky, Tibor & Vanhala, Juuso, 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic, state aid and firm productivity," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    12. Bighelli, Tommaso & Lalinsky, Tibor & Vanhala, Juuso, 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic, state aid and firm productivity," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    13. Benjamin Bureau & Anne Duquerroy & Frédéric Vinas & Andrew EllulEditor, 2024. "Activity Shocks and Corporate Liquidity: the Role of Trade Credit," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 668-711.
    14. Archanskaia, Elizaveta & Canton, Erik & Hobza, Alexandr & Nikolov, Plamen & Simons, Wouter, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of COVID-19: A novel approach to quantifying financial distress across industries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," IMF Working Papers 2020/207, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stieglitz, Moritz & Setzer, Ralph, 2022. "Firm-level employment, labour market reforms, and bank distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Alam, M. Jahangir, 2020. "Capital misallocation: Cyclicality and sources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Peter Gal & Alexander Hijzen, 2016. "The short-term impact of product market reforms: A cross-country firm-level analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1311, OECD Publishing.
    6. Magud, Nicolas E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2024. "The return of expansionary austerity: Firms' investment response to fiscal adjustments in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Lidia Smitkova, 2023. "Profits, ‘Superstar’ Firms and Capital Flows," Economics Series Working Papers 1030, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Liang, Yan, 2022. "Impact of financial development on outsourcing and aggregate productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Castiglione, Concetta & Infante, Davide & Zieba, Marta, 2023. "Public support for performing arts. Efficiency and productivity gains in eleven European countries," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Abele, Christian & Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Fontagné, Lionel, 2024. "The impact of financial tightening on firm productivity: Maturity matters," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Klein, Daniel & Ludwig, Christopher A. & Nicolay, Katharina, 2020. "Internal digitalization and tax-efficient decision making," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-051, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2024. "Zombie Credit and (Dis‐)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1883-1929, June.
    13. Neira, Julian, 2019. "Bankruptcy and cross-country differences in productivity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 359-381.
    14. Emilio Colombo & Alberto Marcato, 2021. "Skill Demand and Labour Market Concentration: Theory and Evidence from Italian Vacancies," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2104, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    15. Johannes Boehm & Jan Sonntag, 2023. "Vertical Integration and Foreclosure: Evidence from Production Network Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 141-161, January.
    16. Valeria Gattai & Piergiovanna Natale & Francesca Rossi, 2022. "Board Diversity and Outward FDI: Evidence from Europe," Working Papers 491, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2022.
    17. Bussolo, Maurizio & de Nicola, Francesca & Panizza, Ugo & Varghese, Richard, 2022. "Politically connected firms and privileged access to credit: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Dyaran Bansraj & Han Smit & Vadym Volosovych, 2020. "Can Private Equity Funds Act as Strategic Buyers? Evidence from Buy-and-Build Strategies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-041/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Andrea Bellucci & Serena Fatica & Aliki Georgakaki & Gianluca Gucciardi & Simon Letout & Francesco Pasimeni, 2023. "Venture Capital Financing and Green Patenting," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 947-983, August.
    20. Fons-Rosen, Christian & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E. & Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina & Volosovych, Vadym, 2021. "Quantifying productivity gains from foreign investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cash; COVID-19; job retention; liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1647-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.