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The elusive character of fiscal sustainability

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries using unit root and cointegration analysis, controlling for endogenous breaks. Results deem fiscal sustainability as rather elusive since we find lack of cointegration -- absence of sustainability -- between government revenues and expenditures (except for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and UK); improvements of the primary balance after worsening debt ratios only for Australia, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands and the UK; and Granger causality from government debt to primary balances for 12 countries (suggesting Ricardian regimes).

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "The elusive character of fiscal sustainability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(28), pages 2651-2664, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:28:p:2651-2664
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1128074
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gladys Awinpoak Abindaw Nabieu & Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Achampong Kofi Osei & Patrick Opoku Asuming, 2021. "Fiscal rules, fiscal performance and economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(4), pages 607-619, December.
    3. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2024. "Drivers of fiscal sustainability: A time-varying analysis for Portugal," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Pierre ALDAMA & Jérôme Creel, 2017. "Fiscal policy in the US : Ricardian after all ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8g1v863ou8ne8avs9kr75pav8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2017. "Sovereign debt composition and time-varying public finance sustainability," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 144-155.
    7. Diego Martínez‐López, 2022. "Subnational borrowing and bailouts: When the federal government looks at the votes (differently) and its borrowing matters," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 609-633, June.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4718gto3ar8s3r4k307p0bvbcs is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    10. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2023. "Public finances solvency in the Euro Area," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 642-657.
    11. Alloza, Mario & Andrés, Javier & Pérez, Javier J. & Rojas, Juan A., 2020. "Implicit public debt thresholds: An operational proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1408-1424.
    12. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 106-123.
    13. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2024. "Budgetary Constrained Governments: Drivers of Time Varying Fiscal Sustainability in OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 11137, CESifo.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/8g1v863ou8ne8avs9kr75pav8 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4718gto3ar8s3r4k307p0bvbcs is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    17. Aldama Pierre & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis : an application to France," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    18. Mikhail B. Petrov & Leonid A. Serkov & Kseniya A. Zavyalova, 2023. "Causal analysis of the interinfluence of workforce productivity and rail freight intensity in the regions of the Ural Federal District," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 9(3), pages 310-324.
    19. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    20. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2022. "Public finances solvency in the Euro Area: true or false?," Working Papers REM 2022/0243, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    21. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & María A. Prats, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in the European Countries: A Panel ARDL Approach and a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    22. William Irungu Nganga & Julien Chevallier & Simon Wagura Ndiritu, 2018. "Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya with comparative nonlinear Granger causalities across East-African countries," Working Papers halshs-01941226, HAL.
    23. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2017. "Why Fiscal Regimes Matter for Fiscal Sustainability: An Application to France," Working Papers 2017.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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