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Exogenous and Endogenous Price Jumps Belong to Different Dynamical Classes

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Marcaccioli
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • Michael Benzaquen

    (LadHyX - Laboratoire d'hydrodynamique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising spontaneously (endogenous). On average, large volatility fluctuations induced by exogenous events occur abruptly and are followed by a decaying power-law relaxation, while endogenous price jumps are characterized by progressively accelerating growth of volatility, also followed by a power-law relaxation, but slower than for exogenous jumps. Remarkably, our results are reminiscent of what is observed in different contexts, namely Amazon book sales and YouTube views. Finally, we show that fitting power-laws to {\it individual} volatility profiles allows one to classify large events into endogenous and exogenous dynamical classes, without relying on the news feed.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Marcaccioli & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2022. "Exogenous and Endogenous Price Jumps Belong to Different Dynamical Classes," Post-Print hal-03378876, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03378876
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03378876
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    Cited by:

    1. Matúš Maciak & Sebastiano Vitali, 2024. "Using interpolated implied volatility for analysing exogenous market changes," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Tóth & Michael Benzaquen, 2023. "Microfounding GARCH models and beyond: a Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 599-625, July.
    3. Salma Elomari-Kessab & Guillaume Maitrier & Julius Bonart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2024. ""Microstructure Modes" -- Disentangling the Joint Dynamics of Prices & Order Flow," Papers 2405.10654, arXiv.org.
    4. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2024. "The Self-Organized Criticality Paradigm in Economics & Finance," Papers 2407.10284, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    5. Jianfei Zhang & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2023. "Towards systematic intraday news screening: a liquidity-focused approach," Papers 2304.05115, arXiv.org.
    6. Antonio Briola & Silvia Bartolucci & Tomaso Aste, 2024. "Deep Limit Order Book Forecasting," Papers 2403.09267, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

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