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When Do Plastic Bills Lower the Bill for the Central Bank: A Model and Estimates for the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Yassine Bouhdaoui
  • David Bounie

    (ECOGE - Economie Gestion - I3 SES - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation de Telecom Paris - Télécom Paris - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SES - Département Sciences Economiques et Sociales - Télécom Paris - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Leo van Hove

Abstract

We develop an analytical framework that allows central banks to assess whether changing the manufacturing material of their tokens would be beneficial. Applied to the case of the U.S., we find that a complete adoption of plastic notes would save the Fed $140 million per year but would entail a substantial migration cost in case of a “big bang”. On the level of individual denominations, we find that the $1 bill would be the most lucrative to replace and that the business case for the $100 bill is thin – suggesting that a partial adoption of polymer would make more sense.
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Suggested Citation

  • Yassine Bouhdaoui & David Bounie & Leo van Hove, 2013. "When Do Plastic Bills Lower the Bill for the Central Bank: A Model and Estimates for the U.S," Post-Print hal-02286409, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02286409
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Menzies, Gordon, 2004. "Money to burn, or melt? A cost-benefit analysis of Australian polymer banknotes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 355-368, December.
    2. Jorge E. Galán and & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
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    5. Leo Van Hove, 2004. "Cost-based Pricing of Payment Instruments: the State of the Debate," De Economist, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 79-100, March.
    6. Alami, Tarik H., 2001. "Currency substitution versus dollarization: A portfolio balance model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 473-479, May.
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    9. VAN HOVE, Leo, 2007. "Central Banks and Payment Instruments: a Serious Case of Schizophrenia," MPRA Paper 5281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ruth A. Judson & Richard D. Porter, 2003. "Estimating the worldwide volume of counterfeit U.S. currency: data and extrapolation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Brian Lang, 2002. "Polymer bank notes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Hove, Leo, 2015. "Modelling banknote printing costs: of cohorts, generations, and note-years," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 238-249.
    2. Bouhdaoui, Yassine & Van Hove, Leo, 2017. "On the socially optimal density of coin and banknote series: Do production costs really matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 252-267.
    3. Anirudh Tagat & Mehmet Özmen & Gregory Markowsky, 2024. "Banknote Life in India: A Survival Analysis Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(2), pages 519-545, June.
    4. Deinhammer, Harald & Ladi, Anna, 2017. "Modelling euro banknote quality in circulation," Occasional Paper Series 204, European Central Bank.
    5. de Heij, Hans, 2017. "A model for use-centered design of payment instruments applied to banknotes : Upid-model," Other publications TiSEM 981fb06b-8f61-4652-aedb-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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