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Estimating the worldwide volume of counterfeit U.S. currency: data and extrapolation

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Abstract

The incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Secret Service. This paper assembles data from Federal Reserve and U.S. Secret Service sources and presents a range of estimates for the number of counterfeits in circulation. In addition, the paper presents figures on counterfeit passing activity by denomination, location, and method of production. The paper has two main conclusions: first, the stock of counterfeits in the world as a whole is likely on the order of 1 or fewer per 10,000 in both piece and value terms; second, losses to the U.S. public from the most commonly used note, the $20, are relatively small, and are miniscule when only counterfeit notes of reasonable quality are considered.

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  • Ruth A. Judson & Richard D. Porter, 2003. "Estimating the worldwide volume of counterfeit U.S. currency: data and extrapolation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-52
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    1. Edward J. Green & Warren E. Weber, 1996. "Will the new $100 bill decrease counterfeiting?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 20(Sum), pages 3-10.
    2. Yvan Lengwiler, 1997. "A model of money counterfeits," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 123-132, June.
    3. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "Overseas Holdings Of U.S.Currency And The Underground Economy," Macroeconomics 0501022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Porter, Richard D. & Weinbach, Gretchen C., 1999. "Currency ratios and U.S. underground economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-361, June.
    5. Susan Pozo (ed.), 1996. "Exploring the Underground Economy," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number eue.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bouhdaoui, Y. & Bounie, D. & Van Hove, L., 2013. "When do plastic bills lower the bill for the central bank? A model and estimates for the U.S," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-60.
    3. John Chant, 2004. "Counterfeiting: A Canadian Perspective," Staff Working Papers 04-33, Bank of Canada.
    4. Kahn, Charles M. & Roberds, William, 2009. "Why pay? An introduction to payments economics," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January.

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    Keywords

    Counterfeits and counterfeiting; Dollar; American;
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