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Coherent Odds and Subjective Probability

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Abstract

Our major claim is that when people behave strategically,it is wrong to interpret the betting rates they announce as their subjective probabilities of the different events. Instead, these rates should be understood as the prices at which subjects are willing to trade certain goods (simple lotteries tickets).

Suggested Citation

  • Border, Kim C. & Segal, Uzi, 1997. "Coherent Odds and Subjective Probability," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 9717, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwo:uwowop:9717
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Leeat Yariv & David Laibson, 2004. "Safety in Markets: An Impossibility Theorem for Dutch Books," 2004 Meeting Papers 867, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Diecidue, Enrico & Wakker, Peter P., 2002. "Dutch books: avoiding strategic and dynamic complications, and a comonotonic extension," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 135-149, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PROBABILITY; DECISION MAKING;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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