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Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

Author

Listed:
  • Brigitte Dormont

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Anne-Laure Samson

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Fleurbaey

    (Economic Theory Center - Princeton University)

  • Stephane Luchini

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Erik Schokkaert

    (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

Abstract

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual's subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information—mainly their parents' survival and longevity—to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.

Suggested Citation

  • Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stephane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Post-Print hal-01897069, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01897069
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-018-0713-4
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    • Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1854, October.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Meyer & Gregory Ponthiere, 2020. "Human lifetime entropy in a historical perspective (1750–2014)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(1), pages 129-167, January.
    2. Kent Adsbøll Wickstrøm & Kim Klyver & Maryam Cheraghi-Madsen, 2022. "Age effect on entry to entrepreneurship: embedded in life expectancy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 57-76, January.
    3. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
    4. Aburto, José Manuel & di Lego, Vanessa & Riffe, Tim & Kashyap, Ridhi & van Raalte, Alyson & Torrisi, Orsola, 2023. "A global assessment of the impact of violence on lifetime uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118196, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Dimiter Philipov & Sergei Scherbov, 2020. "Subjective length of life of European individuals at older ages: Temporal and gender distinctions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, March.

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