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Subjective life expectancy in the US: correspondence to actuarial estimates by age, sex and race

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  • Mirowsky, John

Abstract

This study maps the relationship between subjective and actuarial life expectancy in a 1995 national sample of 2037 Americans of ages 18-95. Subjective estimates parallel age-specific actuarial ones based on current age-specific mortality rates. However males expect to live about 3 years longer than the actuarial estimate and blacks expect to live about 6 years longer. The apparent optimism remains after adjusting for socioeconomic status and the signs and symptoms of good health. Contrary to economists' rational-expectations hypothesis, young adults do not adjust their life expectancies upward to account for the favorable trends in mortality rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirowsky, John, 1999. "Subjective life expectancy in the US: correspondence to actuarial estimates by age, sex and race," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 967-979, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:49:y:1999:i:7:p:967-979
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    Cited by:

    1. Márta Péntek & László Gulácsi & Bernadette Rojkovich & Valentin Brodszky & Job Exel & Werner B. F. Brouwer, 2014. "Subjective health expectations at biological therapy initiation: a survey of rheumatoid arthritis patients and rheumatologists," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(1), pages 83-92, May.
    2. Grevenbrock, Nils & Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2015. "Biased Survival Beliefs, Psychological and Cognitive Explanations, and the Demand for Life Insurances," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113203, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    4. Apostolos Papachristos & Dimitrios Fouskakis, 2024. "Incorporating subjective survival information in mortality and change in health status predictions: A Bayesian approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(36), pages 1071-1112.
    5. Floortje van Nooten & Werner Brouwer, 2004. "The influence of subjective expectations about length and quality of life on time trade‐off answers," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 819-823, August.
    6. Kieren, Pascal & Weber, Martin, 2019. "When saving is not enough: The wealth decumulation decision in retirement," CFS Working Paper Series 634, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Schreiber, Philipp & Weber, Martin, 2016. "Time inconsistent preferences and the annuitization decision," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 37-55.
    8. Patrick Meyer & Gregory Ponthiere, 2020. "Human lifetime entropy in a historical perspective (1750–2014)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(1), pages 129-167, January.
    9. Bruno Arpino & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2022. "I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 471-517, April.
    10. Kent Adsbøll Wickstrøm & Kim Klyver & Maryam Cheraghi-Madsen, 2022. "Age effect on entry to entrepreneurship: embedded in life expectancy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 57-76, January.
    11. Bago d'Uva, Teresa & O'Donnell, Owen & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2020. "Who can predict their own demise? Heterogeneity in the accuracy and value of longevity expectations☆," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    12. Hanna Solinge & Kène Henkens, 2018. "Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10-year panel study among older workers," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 155-164, June.
    13. John Payne & Namika Sagara & Suzanne Shu & Kirstin Appelt & Eric Johnson, 2013. "Life expectancy as a constructed belief: Evidence of a live-to or die-by framing effect," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 27-50, February.
    14. Apostolos Papachristos & Georgia Verropoulou & George Ploubidis & Cleon Tsimbos, 2020. "Factors incorporated into future survival estimation among Europeans," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(2), pages 15-56.
    15. Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1854, October.
    16. Hong Wu, 2020. "How do Co‐ and Non‐Residential Children Impact your Subjective Life Expectancy: An Empirical Study on CHARLS Data?," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 532-544, March.
    17. Shaun Da Costa, 2023. "Estimating the value of life expectancy gains in Tanzania using the life satisfaction and model based approaches," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1040-1063, May.
    18. Tal Shavit, 2013. "The effect of optimism bias on time preference," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 128-133.
    19. Yeorim Kim & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2024. "Residual-debt insurance and mortgage repayments," Working Papers 823, DNB.

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