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Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables: Application to employment duration and fertility in the EU-SILC

Author

Listed:
  • Michael S Rendall

    (University of Maryland [College Park] - University of Maryland System)

  • Angela Greulich

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

OBJECTIVE A common problem when using panel data is that individuals' histories are incompletely known at the first wave. We demonstrate the use of multiple imputation as a method to handle this partial information, and thereby increase statistical power without compromising the model specification. METHODS Using EU-SILC panel data to investigate full-time employment as a predictor of partnered women's risk of first birth in Poland, we first multiply imputed employment status two years earlier to cases for which employment status is observed only in the most recent year. We then derived regression estimates from the full, multiply imputed sample, and compared the coefficient and standard error estimates to those from complete-case estimation with employment status observed both one and two years earlier. RESULTS Relative to not being full-time employed, having been full-time employed for two or more years was a positive and statistically significant predictor of childbearing in the multiply imputed sample, but was not significant when using complete-case estimation. The variance about the ‘two or more years' coefficient was one third lower in the multiply imputed sample than in the complete-case sample. CONTRIBUTION By using MI for left-censored observations, researchers using panel data may specify a model that includes characteristics of state or event histories without discarding observations for which that information is only partially available. Using conventional methods, either the analysis model must be simplified to ignore potentially important information about the state or event history (risking biased estimation), or cases with partial information must be dropped from the analytical sample (resulting in inefficient estimation).

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S Rendall & Angela Greulich, 2016. "Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables: Application to employment duration and fertility in the EU-SILC," Post-Print hal-01396298, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01396298
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.38
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01396298
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angela Greulich & Michael Rendall, 2014. "Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables," Working Papers hal-01298942, HAL.
    2. Sheila C. Jacobs, 2002. "Reliability and recall of unemployment events using retrospective data," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 16(3), pages 537-548, September.
    3. Elisabetta Santarelli, 2011. "Economic resources and the first child in Italy: A focus on income and job stability," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(9), pages 311-336.
    4. Berkay Özcan & Karl Ulrich Mayer & Joerg Luedicke, 2010. "The impact of unemployment on the transition to parenthood," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 23(29), pages 807-846.
    5. Angela Greulich & Michael Rendall, 2014. "Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298942, HAL.
    6. Robert Moffitt & Michael Rendall, 1995. "Cohort trends in the lifetime distribution of female family headship in the United States, 1968–1985," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(3), pages 407-424, August.
    7. Robert Moffitt & Michael Rendall, 1995. "Erratum to: Cohort Trends in the Lifetime Distribution of Female Family Headship in the U.S., 1968–1985," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(4), pages 1-1, November.
    8. Daniele Vignoli & Sven Drefahl & Gustavo De Santis, 2012. "Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(2), pages 41-62.
    9. Kaminska, Olena & Iacovou, Maria & Levy, Horacio, 2012. "Using EU-SILC data for cross-national analysis: strengths, problems and recommendations," ISER Working Paper Series 2012-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Greulich & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière & Olivier Thevenon, 2017. "Employment and second childbirths in Europe [Emploi et deuxième naissance en Europe]," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01730664, HAL.

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