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A new real option value due to "demographic risk" in the market for developable land

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Cavailhès

    (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement)

  • Mohamed Hilal

    (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement)

  • Pierre Wavresky

    (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement)

Abstract

We study two option values in the developable land market in a French department (Nord): the classical option value relating to the short-run volatility of the land price and a long-run option value resulting from uncertainty about demographic change. The findings show that both are significant. First, the land price increases by 7.4-15.3% when the standard deviation (STD) of the land price rises by a STD. Second, an increase of one STD in the STD of the variation in population between 1982 and 1999 entails a 6% increase in the developable land price.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Cavailhès & Mohamed Hilal & Pierre Wavresky, 2013. "A new real option value due to "demographic risk" in the market for developable land," Post-Print hal-00939785, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00939785
    DOI: 10.2174/1874942901306010001
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00939785
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    References listed on IDEAS

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