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Testing for State Dependence with Time-Variant Transition Probabilities

Author

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  • Timothy J. Halliday

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa
    John A. Burns School of Medicine)

Abstract

We consider the identification of state dependence in a dynamic Logit model with timevariant transition probabilities and an arbitrary distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity. We derive a simple result that allows us to test for the presence of state dependence in this model. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that this test has desirable properties even when there are some violations of the model’s assumptions. We also consider alternative tests for state dependence that will have desirable properties only when the transition probabilities do not depend on time and provide evidence that there is an "acceptable" range in which ignoring time-dependence does not matter too much. We conclude with an application to the Barker Hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Halliday, 2006. "Testing for State Dependence with Time-Variant Transition Probabilities," Working Papers 200614, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200614
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_06-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thierry Magnac, 2004. "Panel Binary Variables and Sufficiency: Generalizing Conditional Logit," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1859-1876, November.
    2. Timothy J. Halliday, 2008. "Heterogeneity, state dependence and health," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 499-516, November.
    3. Timothy Halliday, 2006. "Income Risk and Health," Working Papers 200612, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    4. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_economic_status_paper is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bo E. Honoré & Elie Tamer, 2002. "Bounds on Parameters in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," CAM Working Papers 2004-23, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics, revised Aug 2004.
    6. Bo E. Honoré & Elie Tamer, 2006. "Bounds on Parameters in Panel Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 611-629, May.
    7. Anne Case & Darren Lubotsky & Christina Paxson, 2002. "Economic Status and Health in Childhood: The Origins of the Gradient," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1308-1334, December.
    8. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_economic_status_paper.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hahn, Jinyong, 2001. "The Information Bound Of A Dynamic Panel Logit Model With Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 913-932, October.
    10. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy J. Halliday, 2008. "Heterogeneity, state dependence and health," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 499-516, November.
    2. Halliday Timothy, 2011. "Health Inequality over the Life-Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Francesco Bartolucci & Valentina Nigro & Claudia Pigini, 2018. "Testing for state dependence in binary panel data with individual covariates by a modified quadratic exponential model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 61-88, January.
    4. Bartolucci, Francesco & Nigro, Valentina & Pigini, Claudia, 2013. "Testing for state dependence in binary panel data with individual covariates," MPRA Paper 48233, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Dynamic Panel Data Models; State Dependence; Health;
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