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Demographie und Ökonomie: Einfluss der Bevölkerungsstruktur auf die Konsumnachfrage

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Distelkamp

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Marc Ingo Wolter

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

Das Statistische Bundesamt prognostiziert für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland in seiner 10. Koordinierten Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung nach einem geringen Anstieg der Bevölkerung von derzeit rund 82,5 Millionen auf 83 Millionen Einwohner im Jahr 2013 bis zum Jahr 2050 ein Absinken der Bevölkerung auf das Niveau des Jahres 1963 (75 Millionen Einwohner). Gleichzeitig ergeben sich starke Verschiebungen im Altersaufbau der Bevölkerung. Der Altenquotient – das Verhältnis zwischen Personen im Rentenalter (ab 60 Jahren) und Personen im Erwerbsalter (20 bis 59 Jahre) – steigt von derzeit 44 bis auf 78 im Jahr 2050. Das heißt, dass heute auf 100 Personen im erwerbsfähigen Alter 44 Rentner kommen, während im Jahre 2050 100 erwerbsfähigen Personen 78 Rentner gegenüberstehen werden. Bemerkenswert ist, dass die Bevölkerungsdynamik bezogen auf die Gesamtzahl erst jenseits von 2015 spürbar wird, während der Strukturwandel der evölkerung bereits voll im Gang ist und sich noch weiter verschärft. Die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Sozialversicherungssysteme und den Arbeitsmarkt sind Gegenstand einer Vielzahl wissenschaftlicher Arbeiten und politischer Diskurse geworden. Die Auswirkungen einer veränderten Altersstruktur auf die Nachfragestruktur und Nachfragehöhe der privaten Haushalte ist bisher noch kaum untersucht worden. Hier besteht noch erheblicher Forschungsbedarf (Deutscher Bundestag, Enquete-Kommission „Demographischer Wandel“, 2002, S. 78)

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Distelkamp & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2004. "Demographie und Ökonomie: Einfluss der Bevölkerungsstruktur auf die Konsumnachfrage," GWS Discussion Paper Series 04-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:04-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tim Dowd & Ralph Monaco & Jeffry Janoska, 1998. "Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 239-262.
    2. Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-1874, December.
    3. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Böhm, Paul & Merz, Joachim, 2008. "Zum Einkommensreichtum Älterer in Deutschland- Neue Reichtumskennzahlen und Ergebnisse aus der Lohnund Einkommensteuerstatistik (FAST 2001)," MPRA Paper 9037, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographie; Ökonomie; Bevölkerungsstruktur; Konsumnachfrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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