IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fth/nystfi/99-010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regime Shifts and Bond Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Jacob Boudoukh
  • Matthew Richardson
  • Tom Smith
  • Robert Whitelaw

Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of a 2-regime model of the business cycle for term premiums and volatilities in the bond market. The model, which is estimated via maximum likelihood using GDP, consumption and production data, has two key features -- mean growth rates that vary across regimes and time-varying transition probabilities between regimes. The implied dynamics of term premiums and volatilities are complex and interesting. Business cycle turning points are characterized by high volatility and strongly time-varying term premiums. These implications are then investigated using data on bond returns. Nonparametric estimation results are broadly consistent with the model. Using the slope of the term structure as a conditioning variable, we can identify periods with negative term premiums and volatile returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:99-010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/fin/workpapers/papers99/wpa99010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-396, March.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    3. Boudoukh, Jacob, 1993. "An Equilibrium Model of Nominal Bond Prices with Inflation-Output Correlation and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 636-665, August.
    4. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 2001. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov-Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 989-1013, November.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    9. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    11. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    12. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    13. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Yoon, Bohyun, 2019. "Why has the size effect disappeared?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 256-276.
    2. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2002. "Stock market uncertainty and the relation between stock and bond returns," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    4. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    5. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    6. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
    7. Shu Wu & Yong Zeng, 2005. "A General Equilibrium Model Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates Under Regime-Switching Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 839-869.
    8. Hoi Wong & Tsz Wong, 2007. "Reduced-form Models with Regime Switching: An Empirical Analysis for Corporate Bonds," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(3), pages 229-253, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shu Wu & Yong Zeng, 2005. "A General Equilibrium Model Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates Under Regime-Switching Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 839-869.
    2. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UK," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 177-193, April.
    4. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
    5. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Sectoral Survey‐based Confidence Indicators for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 175-206, April.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    7. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    8. Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
    9. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    10. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    11. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
    12. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pakoš, Michal, 2013. "Long-run risk and hidden growth persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1911-1928.
    14. Moradi, Alireza, 2016. "Modeling Business Cycle Fluctuations through Markov Switching VAR:An Application to Iran," MPRA Paper 73608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. GARCIA, René & RENAULT, Éric, 1998. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing," Cahiers de recherche 9801, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    16. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
    17. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
    18. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
    19. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    20. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:99-010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fdnyuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.