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Valuing Risk and Flexibility: A Comparison of Methods

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  • Moyen, N.
  • Slade, M.
  • Uppal, R.

Abstract

Discounted-cash-flow (DCF) techniques form the basis of most corporate-investment decisions. Many practitioners, however, claim to be dissatisfied with traditional methods of appraisal. In this paper, we survey DCF and more recent methods of evaluating cyclical projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Moyen, N. & Slade, M. & Uppal, R., 1996. "Valuing Risk and Flexibility: A Comparison of Methods," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96b08, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:aixmeq:96b08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Dehghani, Hesam & Ataee-pour, Majid, 2012. "Determination of the effect of operating cost uncertainty on mining project evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 109-117.
    3. Mustafa Şeref AKIN, 2020. "High Cost of Venture Capital and Investment Strategy Startups Should Follow," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(1), pages 229-245, June.
    4. Inthavongsa, Inthanongsone & Drebenstedt, Carsten & Bongaerts, Jan & Sontamino, Phongpat, 2016. "Real options decision framework: Strategic operating policies for open pit mine planning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 142-153.
    5. Miranda, Oscar & Brandão, Luiz E. & Lazo Lazo, Juan, 2017. "A dynamic model for valuing flexible mining exploration projects under uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 393-404.
    6. Hazra, Tanmoy & Samanta, Biswajit & Dey, Kaushik, 2019. "Real option valuation of an Indian iron ore deposit through system dynamics model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 288-299.
    7. Savolainen, Jyrki & Collan, Mikael & Kyläheiko, Kalevi & Luukka, Pasi, 2017. "On the trade-off between the leverage effect and real options thinking: A simulation-based model on metal mining investment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 43-51.
    8. Xiao, Chang & Florescu, Ionut & Zhou, Jinsheng, 2020. "A comparison of pricing models for mineral rights: Copper mine in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Foo, Nam & Bloch, Harry & Salim, Ruhul, 2018. "The optimisation rule for investment in mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 123-132.
    10. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    11. Slade, Margaret E., 2001. "Valuing Managerial Flexibility: An Application of Real-Option Theory to Mining Investments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-233, March.
    12. Li, Nan & Wang, Song & Zhang, Kai, 2022. "Price options on investment project expansion under commodity price and volatility uncertainties using a novel finite difference method," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 421(C).
    13. Dehghani, Hesam & Ataee-pour, Majid & Esfahanipour, Akbar, 2014. "Evaluation of the mining projects under economic uncertainties using multidimensional binomial tree," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 124-133.
    14. Johnson Kakeu, 2016. "Exhaustibility and Risk as Asset Class Dimensions: A Social Investor Approach to Capital-Resource Economies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(4), pages 677-695, December.
    15. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    16. Gomes Santana Félix, Elisabete & Esperança, José Paulo, 2004. "Efeito da flexibilidade na decisão de investimento: Uma aplicação à exploração do cobre [Flexibility effect on the investment decision: An application to the exploration of copper]," MPRA Paper 6185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jyrki Savolainen & Ramin Rakhsha & Richard Durham, 2022. "Simulation-based decision-making system for optimal mine production plan selection," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(2), pages 267-281, June.
    18. Mikael Collan & Jyrki Savolainen & Pasi Luukka, 2017. "Investigating the effect of price process selection on the value of a metal mining asset portfolio," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 107-115, July.
    19. Auger, Felipe & Ignacio Guzmán, Juan, 2010. "How rational are investment decisions in the copper industry?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 292-300, December.
    20. Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos G. & Abdel Sabour, Sabry A., 2007. "Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 116-125, September.
    21. Simone Kelly, 2017. "The market premium for the option to close: evidence from Australian gold mining firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(2), pages 511-531, June.
    22. Trappey, Charles V. & Shih, Tsui-Yii & Trappey, Amy J.C., 2007. "Modeling international investment decisions for financial holding companies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 800-814, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    RISK; ENTERPRISES; INVESTMENTS; FINANCIAL MARKET; MINES;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources

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