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How rational are investment decisions in the copper industry?

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  • Auger, Felipe
  • Ignacio Guzmán, Juan

Abstract

This paper examines ex-post 51 investment decisions made in regard to copper mines coming on stream from 1957 through 1999. It discusses two critical variables: investment timing and mine capacity choice. Using a 15% discount rate, results suggest that fewer than half of decisions were made at the right time - i.e., low price periods - confirming countercyclical investment as the optimal policy. In terms of capacity choice, the distortion is even higher, as 36 projects should have entered at least 40% larger or smaller. Realized investment decisions for timing and capacity choice would have caused a 49.1% loss over the NPV potentially achievable under optimal resolutions. Although the difference could be specifically attributed to copper price uncertainty, this paper discusses how investment evaluation methodologies could be contributing to firms not being fully rational (in the neoclassical sense) when investing.

Suggested Citation

  • Auger, Felipe & Ignacio Guzmán, Juan, 2010. "How rational are investment decisions in the copper industry?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 292-300, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:4:p:292-300
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    2. Suárez Sánchez, Ana & Krzemień, Alicja & Riesgo Fernández, Pedro & Iglesias Rodríguez, Francisco J. & Sánchez Lasheras, Fernando & de Cos Juez, F. Javier, 2015. "Investment in new tungsten mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 177-190.
    3. Foo, Nam & Bloch, Harry & Salim, Ruhul, 2018. "The optimisation rule for investment in mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 123-132.
    4. Diego García & Juan Ignacio Guzmán, 2020. "Short-term price volatility and reversion rate in mineral commodity markets," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 217-229, July.
    5. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    6. Jyrki Savolainen & Ramin Rakhsha & Richard Durham, 2022. "Simulation-based decision-making system for optimal mine production plan selection," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(2), pages 267-281, June.

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